Are you worried you may be engaging in motivated reasoning, rationalization ... or committing other reasoning fallacies?

I propose  the following epistemic check using Elicit.org's "reason from one claim to another" tool

Whenever you have a theory that $A\to B$, 
Take your  theory negating one side or the other (or the contrapositive of either negation), and feed it into this tool.

Feed it
$A\to \neg B$

 and/or 
$\neg A\to B$,

and see if any of the arguments it presents seem equally plausible to your arguments for $A\to B$.

If they seem similarly plausive, believe your original arguments and conclusion less. 

Caveat: the tool is not working great yet, and often requires a few rounds of iteration, selecting the better arguments and tell.ing it "show me more like this", or feeding it some arguments.