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If we haven't seen such an extinction in the archaeological record, it can mean one of several things:

  • misalignment is rare, or
  • misalignment is not rare once the species becomes intelligent, but intelligence is rare or
  • intelligence usually results in transcendence, so there's only one transition before the bio becomes irrelevant in the lightcone (and we are it)

We don't know which.  I think it's a combination of 2 and 3.

The app is not currently working - it complains about the token.

and thus AGI arrives - quite predictably[17] - around the end of Moore's Law


Given that the brain only consumes 20 W because of biological competitiveness constraints, and that 200 KW only costs around $20/hour in data centers, we can afford to be four OOMs less efficient than the brain while maintaining parity of capabilities.  This results in AGI's potential arrival at least a couple of decades earlier than the end of Moore's Law.