Last updated: 2020-03-09

Embryo selection

How likely is it that embryo selection (or other technology) will be available to a consumer for less than [price] per expected additional IQ point in the next [number of] years?

Similarly for other reproductive technology and characteristics.

Depending on the probability, one could decide to postpone having children and/or cryopreserve sperm/eggs/embryos.

Related: https://www.gwern.net/Embryo-selection

Immigration

How likely is it that people from country X will still be able to immigrate in country Y by year Z?

Depending on the probability, one could decide to immigrate sooner or later.

Cryonics

How likely is it that Oregon Cryonics will still offer services in 50 years? (conditioning on cryonics still being offered by some organizations)

Depending on the probability, one could decide to move to Salem or otherwise move near another facility (ex.: Phoenix).

Catastrophe risk in a city

How likely is it that San Francisco would receive a nuclear bomb? How likely is it that San Francisco would receive an earthquake of magnitude >X.

Depending on the probability, one could decide not to move to San Francisco.

Global catastrophe

How likely is it that world GDP drops that more than 10x in the next 10 years?

Depending on the probability, one could decide to start prepping.

Employment

How likely is it that there will be demand X for job Y in Z years?

Depending on the probability, one could chose a different career path.

Memory preservation

How likely is it that Google Photo will still have my pictures in X years?

Depending on the probability, one might do more or less back-ups.

Privacy

How likely is it that service X will leak some of my data by year Y?

Depending on the probability, one might avoid using the service.

Nutrition studies

How likely is it that there will be a good [to operationalize] study showing that creatine supplements have positive effects [to operationalize] in the next 20 years?

Depending on the probability, one might take creatine supplements.

Pandemics

When will there be less than 1000 new cases of coronavirus per day in the world?

I was planning to go to Merida, Mexico for 6-12 months starting on July 2020, but I might want to change my plans based on when I predict the coronavirus won't be a significant concern (otherwise I prefer to be in a country with a better healthcare system).

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This wouldn't be useful to me right now, but could become.

Researched treatment

How likely is it that treatment <treatment> will be approved by the FDA [in the next 15 years]?

Depending on the probability, one could take the treatment or not.

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