[ Question ]

What questions about the future would influence people’s actions today if they were informed by a prediction market?

by MathieuRoy 2mo21st Jul 20198 comments

20


I'm looking for questions that would be useful to many individuals and would influence their decisions today (not questions for those working on shaping the long term future of Earth originating life).

I would also like if you specified how those questions might influence people's actions.

There's a couple of questions I would really like to have our current best collective prediction, and I really feel our civilisation is inadequate at providing those.

Edit: side question: where could I post those questions? long term (>5 years) bets need to invested on the stock market, otherwise there's no financial incentives in betting

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1 Answers

Last updated: 2019-07-24

Embryo selection

How likely is it that embryo selection (or other technology) will be available to a consumer for less than [price] per expected additional IQ point in the next [number of] years?

Similarly for other reproductive technology and characteristics.

Depending on the probability, one could decide to postpone having children and/or cryopreserve sperm/eggs/embryos.

Related: https://nickbostrom.com/papers/embryo.pdf

Immigration

How likely is it that people from country X will still be able to immigrate in country Y by year Z?

Depending on the probability, one could decide to immigrate sooner or later.

Cryonics

How likely is it that Oregon Cryonics will still offer services in 50 years? (conditioning on cryonics still being offered by some organizations)

Depending on the probability, one could decide to move to Salem or otherwise move near another facility (ex.: Phoenix).

Catastrophe risk in a city

How likely is it that San Francisco would receive a nuclear bomb? How likely is it that San Francisco would receive an earthquake of magnitude >X.

Depending on the probability, one could decide not to move to San Francisco.

Global catastrophe

How likely is it that world GDP drops that more than 10x in the next 10 years?

Depending on the probability, one could decide to start prepping.

Employment

How likely is it that there will be demand X for job Y in Z years?

Depending on the probability, one could chose a different career path.

Memory preservation

How likely is it that Google Photo will still have my pictures in X years?

Depending on the probability, one might do more or less back-ups.

Privacy

How likely is it that service X will leak some of my data by year Y?

Depending on the probability, one might avoid using the service.

Nutrition studies

How likely is it that there we be a good [to operationalize] study showing that creatine supplements have positive effects [to operationalize] in the next 20 years?

Depending on the probability, one might take creatine supplements.