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You are way more fallible than you think

Regarding disbelief of your own senses: As I've commented before: winners of mega lotteries routinely tripple check thier tickets, get 3rd party verification, and even while sitting in thier new mansion will express thier disbelief at winning.

The Meta-Puzzle

In casual usage "or" is not well defined. Sometimes it means "exactly one" and sometimes it means "one or more"

Therefore, you cannot assume that the speaker is using the second definition when speaking especially in the middle of a tricky logic puzzle with a speaker who might be an always-liar.

Furthermore, speaking more naturally would be "X thing is true, or I am a liar" - which is a fairly common construction of an Oath even in America - just substitute "so help me god" for the second part, which is the same meaning.

Split and Commit

Just to be clear, you should estimate the likelihood of your top 2 explanations (eg 70% and 10%) and then pick the behavior that leads to the best weighted outcome (eg cross the street to avoid the un-leashed mangy dog even though it's probably friendly since the cost of being wrong is disproportionately high, but don’t call animal control since it's probably someone's pet and they will be along shortly)

RandomWalkNFT: A Game Theory Exercise

Sorry, it's spelled

You can check out the FAQ there for the full details.

RandomWalkNFT: A Game Theory Exercise

So, basically a Qbid auction writ large?

Y2K: Successful Practice for AI Alignment

Based on what you wrote here, Y2K mitigation happened over the course of 3 years (1997-1999). That means corporate budgets had time to adjust, POs could be written, new developers hired or contracted, etc. Also, each system needed a few days (or weeks) of work, which could be done at any point in the 3 year span.

COVID mitigation decisions happened over a span of about 3 weeks in March 2020, and required everyone to continue applying those mitigations indefinitely.

Acid Rain / Ozone depletion were also solved, and also were "companies have to make a one-time investment at some point in a multi-year window" type solutions.

Greenhouse Gas accumulation is a mixed bag, but we are seeing that one-time investments (eg installing solar power plants) are happening, and indefinite changes (extracting CO2 in equal proportion to what is created as an additional cost of burning fuel) are not

Baby Sister Numbers

Right after norklet

[Book Review] "The Bell Curve" by Charles Murray

Meta-meta note:

Even if a theoretical author cares not one whit about appearing to endorse "bad things" #scarequotes, including preemptive disclaimers is still good practice to forestall this sort of meta-commentary and keep the comments focused on the content of the post, and not the method of delivery.

Ruling Out Everything Else

One benefit of blog posts is the ability to footnote terms that might be contentious. Saying "reward[1]..." and then 1: for Less Wrong visitors, "reward" in this context means ... clarifies for anyone who needs it/might want to respond while letting the intended audience gloss over the moat and read your point with the benefit of jargon.

Save the kid, ruin the suit; Acceptable utility exchange rates; Distributed utility calculations; Civic duties matter

I observe that there is geographic, genetic, and social discounting. So 1 personal utility is worth: .99 wife utility .99 child utility .9 parent who lives nearby utility .9 next door neighbor utility .75 friend 100 miles away .5 rando in same city .1 rando 1000 miles away in same country .01 rando in Africa

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