Epistemic status: This book covers a lot of topics related to nuclear energy; I have experience with some of them but not all, and some are inherently murky. I will try to make it clear what's fact and what's my opinion. “If you’re not [pursuing safety] cost-effectively, you’re killing people.”...
It's been going around twitter. I answered without thinking. Then I thought about it for a while and decided both answers should be fine, then I thought some more and decided everything I first thought was probably wrong. So now it's time to try math. Ege Erdil did a solid...
This is a summary of the 10 findings in the paper Top 10 Replicated Findings from Behavioral Genetics (Plomin et al 2016). I posted this as a comment a while back, but now I'm making it a full post so I can find it again more easily. The authors show...
The standard formulation of Newcomb's problem has always bothered me, because it seemed like a weird hypothetical designed to make people give the wrong answer. When I first saw it, my immediate response was that I would two-box, because really, I just don't believe in this "perfect predictor" Omega. And...
* The linked post is a response by Oliver Wiseman of CapX to Jason Hickel's recent piece in The Guardian, which claimed that Bill Gates' and Steven Pinker's optimistic view of rapid progress on global poverty is misleading. * Hickel's two points are * 1. Draw the poverty line at...