Also highly relevant:
I'm left somewhat less than satisfied by all of this; it seems like Pinker and Hickel are ignoring some of each other's points, presumably because they don't have nice snappy responses to them.
[EDITED substantially after posting, to include rough summaries of the two things I'm citing.]
Hickel's suggestion that in pre-colonial times people in those very poor countries were less poor than GDP-based measures suggest because they had highly-non-financial assets like (communal) access to water, livestock, grazing land, etc. This is "a romantic fairy tale".
Pinker is wrong here. Pastoralists in general and Steppe peoples in particular are a good example.
Though there was an enormous amount of commerce with the latter, and Chinese records are sufficient to make pretty good GDP estimates in the event anyone were to try, as it happens that commerce dried up at the conclusion of the Dzungar-Qing Wars in 1757. With the genocide of the Dzungars, China and Russia conducted trade by treaty, and the civilizations of Inner Asia entered a period of sharp decline right up until the collapse of the Soviet Union.
A more important question is What is the rate of progress? How fast is the world getting better? (With the answer being a negative number if it is getting worse.)
World population is roughly 2x what it was in 1970, and life expectancy is significantly up, such that there's probably 3-4x the number of anticipated future life-minutes of currently-living humans in 2019 than there was in 1970. In some views, this dwarfs any small change (positive OR negative) in the quality of those life-minutes.
The biggest benefit is going from not-living to living. Income levels are trivial in comparison.
There probably _is_ a point at which the repugnant conclusion becomes binding, and that incremental new lives aren't worth the loss of quality to existing lives. But it's many orders of magnitude out.
Why do you seem so sure about this? I see no moral argument for whether we should rather have a 7 billion humans or a thousand, all else being equal. (Of course, there's also no acceptable way to move from the former to the latter.) (Both the availability of commons and the economies of scale for goods, services and research should not play a role in this moral calculus.)
The same way (and to the same level, which is to say "low certainty") I'm sure about any moral calculus. It matches my intuitions within reasonable bounds, and it's simple.
I prefer living to not-living, and most humans I've asked, observed, or heard about also prefer living over not. I don't know precisely how to aggregate preferences, but I pretty strongly intuit that adding preferred to preferred never makes dispreferred.
{Footnote: I sometimes try to imagine myself surviving for a year on $700, and it looks like a world where income is not a good measure of consumption. That money would all basically have to go to food just to keep me alive... I'd have nowhere to cook, so it's mostly bread and peanut butter; maybe I'd splurge for a can of beans now and then. I'd live in a cardboard box I got from the trash (access to commons, no money involved) and covered over with plastic (also trash, plus I'm not measuring the value of my own labor). It would go in a public park or on private property (effectively stealing use of land) and probably in a warm location, because I can't afford a sleeping bag. Any medical care I needed, I would have to do myself. Even use of a bathroom would be from some sort of commons, either public restrooms (subsidized by customers or government) or in nature. All in all, the non-monetary value I'm getting is probably quite a bit greater than the value I'd get from my paltry supply of money.}