CFAR's 2019 fundraiser is live, and runs through January 15! You can donate here. We recently did an AMA here on LessWrong, and released posts about our progress and plans, and our finances; expect more posts soon from Dan Keys about metrics, and from Anna Salamon about our mission. Donations...
I believe that a small piece of rationalist community doctrine is incorrect, and I'd like your help correcting it (or me). Arguing the point by intuition has largely failed, so here I make the case by leaning heavily on the authority of conventional economic wisdom. The question: How does an...
A ewe for a ewe In a discussion with Benquo over his recent suffering-per-calorie estimates I learned that there have been a few different proponents of incorporating short term elasticities into such estimates. But do empirical short term elasticities really improve our estimates of consumption's long term effect on production?...
[I’m coming back to the comments in this post now and feeling grateful for all the engagement with our podcast. Apologies for being very low engagement on LW for the last decade.]
I just (re-?)noticed that I never addressed your curiosity about machine editing.
Yes, we made heavy use of an automatic transcript/audio editing tool. We can get you the name of it if desired, though I recommend reaching out to me offline if I don’t reply here sufficiently quickly to any follow-up questions you or anyone might have.
Your curiosity helps me realize that I think we should consider flagging all use of automatic tools even if they don’t make use of AI @Elizabeth... (read more)
Awesome, thank you! I'm not sure if we're going to correct this; it's a pain in the butt to fix, especially in the YouTube version, and Elizabeth (who has been doing all the editing herself) is sick right now.
The group I played with (same as Mark Xu's group from comment above) decided that "S2 counting is illegal (you have to let your gut 'feel' the right amount of time)" and "repeating some elaborate ritual that takes the same amount of time before your card is due is illegal" (e.g. you can stick your hand 10% of the way towards the pile when the number's 10 off from your card, and 50% of the way when it's 5 off.)
CFAR's 2019 fundraiser is live, and runs through January 15! You can donate here.
We recently did an AMA here on LessWrong, and released posts about our progress and plans, and our finances; expect more posts soon from Dan Keys about metrics, and from Anna Salamon about our mission.
Donations to CFAR are unusually valuable at the moment—our long-term sources of funding are uncertain, which is making it difficult for us to make long-term plans and promises. We would love to have your support!
Metaphors We Live By by George Lakoff — Totally changed the way I think about language and metaphor and frames when I read it in college. Helped me understand that there are important kinds of knowledge that aren't explicit.
What I get from Duncan’s FB post is (1) an attempt to disentangle his reputation from CFAR’s after he leaves, (2) a prediction that things will change due to his departure, and (3) an expression of frustration that more of his knowledge than necessary will be lost.
All of these answers so far (Luke, Adam, Duncan) resonate for me.
I want to make sure I’m hearing you right though, Duncan. Putting aside the ‘yes’ or ‘no’ of the original question, do the scenes/experiences that Luke and Adam describe match what you remember from when you were here?
Agreed I wouldn’t take the ratanon post too seriously. For another example, I know from living with Dario that his motives do not resemble those ascribed to him in that post.
+1 (I'm the Executive Director of CFAR)
What do you recommend if good data is too costly to collect?
I think that if someone has made a claim but failed to use good data or an empirical model, it should not require good data or an empirical model to convince that person that they were wrong. Great if you have it, but I'm not going to ignore an argument just because it fails to use a model.
I believe that a small piece of rationalist community doctrine is incorrect, and I'd like your help correcting it (or me). Arguing the point by intuition has largely failed, so here I make the case by leaning heavily on the authority of conventional economic wisdom.
How does an industry's total output respond to decreases in a consumer's purchases; does it shrink by a similar amount, a lesser amount, or not at all?
The consensus answer in the few cases I've seen cited in the broader LW community appears to be that production is reduced by an amount that's smaller than the original decrease in consumption.
Animal Charity Evaluators (ACE):
... (read 1058 more words →)Fewer people in
In a discussion with Benquo over his recent suffering-per-calorie estimates I learned that there have been a few different proponents of incorporating short term elasticities into such estimates. But do empirical short term elasticities really improve our estimates of consumption's long term effect on production? For example, if I decide to reduce my lifetime consumption of chicken by one, should I expect the long term production of chicken to drop by ~1, ~0, or something in between?
I believe we should have a relatively strong prior that long term production has a roughly 1:1 relationship with consumption, including for small individual decisions. Below are a couple arguments I find compelling, and a major exception that is... (read 817 more words →)
[I have only read Elizabeth’s comment that I’m responding to here (so far); apologies if it would have been less confusing for me to read the entire thread before responding.]
I have always capitalized both EA and Rationality, and have never thought about it before. The first justification for capitalizing R that comes to mind is all the intentionality/intelligence that I perceive was invested into the proto-“AI Safety” community under EY’s (and others’) leadership. Isn’t it fair to describe the “Rationalist/Rationality” community as the branch of AI Safety/X-risk that is downstream of MIRI, LW, the Sequences, 🪄HPMOR, etc?