[True Believers] Maybe these people really believe that there's a 3% chance that Christ will return this year!
If you are a True Believer it's more likely you believe someone would be sent to hell for gambling on sacred matters. True Believers would never bet that Jesus Christ will return in any specific date. There is one bible passage that Jesus says in Matthew 24:36:
But of that day and hour no one knows, not even the angels of heaven, but My Father only.
If someone truly believes Jesus’ words, then they think the timing of Jesus' return is unknowable.
The True Believers hypothesis rings false because that would be a frankly ridiculous belief to hold. Sometimes people profess ridiculous things, but very few of them put their money where their mouth is on prediction markets.
I don't know what the Yes people have in mind, but certainly they are not Christians.
Jesus once said: "Simply let your "yes" mean yes, and your "no" mean no, because anything beyond that comes from evil".
Will Russia invade only eastern Ukraine or the rest of Ukraine as well?
Zvi, I would love to see you making an analysis of Brazil and I'd compare it to my own thinking and calibrate myself on my own predictions. I strongly believe you are currently the best at what you're doing and I would be grateful if you spent at least some time reasoning about our situation here and making some predictions.
I would like to see different voting systems on different posts, so we could try them out and report back on how each one allows us to express what we think about those posts.
I don't like a single 5-star rating system, but I would love multiple 5-stars in different categories. For example, we could choose to give 5 stars for each of these categories you pointed out: clarity, interestingness, validity/correctness, informativeness, friendliness.
If we had a single 5-star rating system, and suppose I read a post that was completely clear and interesting, but with a wrong conclusion, I just don't know how many stars I would give it. But if I could give 5 stars for clarity and interest, I might give 0~3 stars for correctness (depending on how wrong it was).
Suppose there's a post with 2-star rating on its clarity and I believe the fair rating should be 3-star; I think I would click on 4~5 stars so that I could steer the rating to 3-star. I am not sure how to fix this behaviour, but the rating could say something like "select the final rating you think this post should have", and then I would click on 3-star, if the calculations somehow took care of that.
I completely endorse experimenting different voting systems, we can simply not use them if we realize they don't work well. We should be open to experimentation, and obviously the current system is not perfect and can be improved, and if you are willing to put time and effort into this, I will support and participate and help on discovering if they work better than the current system.
After reading this post, I decided to send a message to Gurkenglas.
This was the best decision I made. I have been developing a mobile software for the last 120 days, and this is my first experience developing something this big. Sharing my screen on Discord, he was able to:
- Completely change my debugging workflow, which is likely to save me hundreds of hours in the long-term
- Teach me a new testing ritual
- Make it easier to identify useless pieces of code
- Refactor hundreds of lines with simple intuitions and good regex
- Teach me dozens of useful keyboard shortcuts and IDE features
- Give me some useful career advice
I wasn't expecting to level up that fast, but in retrospect it seems obvious that accepting a group invitation from a more experienced player would allow me to level up much faster and learn new tricks. Great learning experience.
Hey younger version of me, start reading LW now, start programming now, study more statistics, go deeper on math.
lol, your first paragraph described exactly the discussion I had with a friend less than one month ago... and you wrote the exact question he made me.
“So you want people to sit at home all day and collect free money?”
On my mind, I had "Yes. I want this. For everyone. Not just money. I want to give everyone all the resources they need to fulfill their lives. I'm trying to discover how"
I wonder why ended up dodging the question; yes, +1 for star-manning. I like the concept.
Please, I love this discussion, I super upvoted and if you have any new thoughts about NFTs I would like to hear you talking about. Did you get any new information or have you updated your thoughts about NFTs? I am completely fascinated on how this is even possible, people caring so much about useless maps, and the territory has become "it is super valuable to have a map that tells which of the two perfect copies of a territory arrived first", or people are just pretending for the sake of playing the game in which allows you to speculate on the value of useless maps? I say "useless" in the sense that you can not have any extra utility from knowing that you have two exact sequence of bits "00101" and "00101", but you know that the first one was generated first than the second one, which is a perfect copy of the first one. Even if I have this information, the value provided by those bits doesn't change, so I wonder if this is just a game in which you pretend to care about which sequence of bits came first, even if you can not be absolutely sure which one came first (it all depends which computers uploaded a copy of this sequence of bits first to the internet, not the computer that really generated the first instance in the first place). This is completely crazy for me, but it makes me imagine that I could get a lot of value from the digital art work that I usually generate while learning new subjects in math, and people would love to pay more for the first copy of my digital art, but the second copy would be worthless, and that's because the first copy that I uploaded is the first copy that has been put on the blockchain, why would anyone give a f*** about this? But if everyone is playing a game in which "if you get lucky on getting the first copy and everyone pretends that the first copy is more valuable, you can get a lot of money by playing this game and trying to get the best first copies of every digital piece". LOL HELP ME WHAT ARE WE EVEN TALKING ABOUT, is this what is really happening? Just a new emergent game with strange rules just to have fun and get money and happiness points by randomly assigning points to random digital copies on a specific blockchain? Should we even play this game? I mean, is it net useful to humanity to pretend and play this game?
I'm having fun exploring the subject and I would love anyone to expand on this topic, if anyone has ever explored this craziness we are seeing.
Great summary! Please if possible could you add the context window of each model, how many tokens can you use for each?
Also, I default to 4.1 for most non complex coding tasks because it's fast, o3 is too slow, and 4o is too sycophantic (even when you use a good system prompt 4o is so annoying sometimes).