Filipe Marchesini

Wiki Contributions


Russia has Invaded Ukraine

Will Russia invade only eastern Ukraine or the rest of Ukraine as well?

The IHME Report

Zvi, I would love to see you making an analysis of Brazil and I'd compare it to my own thinking and calibrate myself on my own predictions. I strongly believe you are currently the best at what you're doing and I would be grateful if you spent at least some time reasoning about our situation here and making some predictions.

Improving on the Karma System

I would like to see different voting systems on different posts, so we could try them out and report back on how each one allows us to express what we think about those posts.

I don't like a single 5-star rating system, but I would love multiple 5-stars in different categories. For example, we could choose to give 5 stars for each of these categories you pointed out: clarity, interestingness, validity/correctness, informativeness, friendliness.

If we had a single 5-star rating system, and suppose I read a post that was completely clear and interesting, but with a wrong conclusion, I just don't know how many stars I would give it. But if I could give 5 stars for clarity and interest, I might give 0~3 stars for correctness (depending on how wrong it was).

Suppose there's a post with 2-star rating on its clarity and I believe the fair rating should be 3-star; I think I would click on 4~5 stars so that I could steer the rating to 3-star. I am not sure how to fix this behaviour, but the rating could say something like "select the final rating you think this post should have", and then I would click on 3-star, if the calculations somehow took care of that.

I completely endorse experimenting different voting systems, we can simply not use them if we realize they don't work well. We should be open to experimentation, and obviously the current system is not perfect and can be improved, and if you are willing to put time and effort into this, I will support and participate and help on discovering if they work better than the current system.

Would you like me to debug your math?

After reading this post, I decided to send a message to Gurkenglas.
This was the best decision I made. I have been developing a mobile software for the last 120 days, and this is my first experience developing something this big. Sharing my screen on Discord, he was able to:
- Completely change my debugging workflow, which is likely to save me hundreds of hours in the long-term
- Teach me a new testing ritual
- Make it easier to identify useless pieces of code
- Refactor hundreds of lines with simple intuitions and good regex
- Teach me dozens of useful keyboard shortcuts and IDE features
- Give me some useful career advice

I wasn't expecting to level up that fast, but in retrospect it seems obvious that accepting a group invitation from a more experienced player would allow me to level up much faster and learn new tricks. Great learning experience.

What are some important insights you would give to a younger version of yourself?

Hey younger version of me, start reading LW now, start programming now, study more statistics, go deeper on math.

Link: How to Star-Man

lol, your first paragraph described exactly the discussion I had with a friend less than one month ago... and you wrote the exact question he made me. 

“So you want people to sit at home all day and collect free money?”

On my mind, I had "Yes. I want this. For everyone. Not just money. I want to give everyone all the resources they need to fulfill their lives. I'm trying to discover how"

I wonder why ended up dodging the question; yes, +1 for star-manning. I like the concept.

The map and territory of NFT art

Please, I love this discussion, I super upvoted and if you have any new thoughts about NFTs I would like to hear you talking about. Did you get any new information or have you updated your thoughts about NFTs? I am completely fascinated on how this is even possible, people caring so much about useless maps, and the territory has become "it is super valuable to have a map that tells which of the two perfect copies of a territory arrived first", or people are just pretending for the sake of playing the game in which allows you to speculate on the value of useless maps? I say "useless" in the sense that you can not have any extra utility from knowing that you have two exact sequence of bits "00101" and "00101", but you know that the first one was generated first than the second one, which is a perfect copy of the first one. Even if I have this information, the value provided by those bits doesn't change, so I wonder if this is just a game in which you pretend to care about which sequence of bits came first, even if you can not be absolutely sure which one came first (it all depends which computers uploaded a copy of this sequence of bits first to the internet, not the computer that really generated the first instance in the first place). This is completely crazy for me, but it makes me imagine that I could get a lot of value from the digital art work that I usually generate while learning new subjects in math, and people would love to pay more for the first copy of my digital art, but the second copy would be worthless, and that's because the first copy that I uploaded is the first copy that has been put on the blockchain, why would anyone give a f*** about this? But if everyone is playing a game in which "if you get lucky on getting the first copy and everyone pretends that the first copy is more valuable, you can get a lot of money by playing this game and trying to get the best first copies of every digital piece". LOL HELP ME WHAT ARE WE EVEN TALKING ABOUT, is this what is really happening? Just a new emergent game with strange rules just to have fun and get money and happiness points by randomly assigning points to random digital copies on a specific blockchain? Should we even play this game? I mean, is it net useful to humanity to pretend and play this game? 

I'm having fun exploring the subject and I would love anyone to expand on this topic, if anyone has ever explored this craziness we are seeing.

Tournesol, YouTube and AI Risk

I really like the approach from Tournesol and I was wondering a way to improve the rating system. 
Not only I would like to rate a video, but sometimes I would like to dispute the rating given by another user. 

Suppose I am a seller on AliExpress. I have been selling a 4.8 star product for a year. 
Suddenly I receive a new and rare one star rating. The rating goes like this:

"User123: I waiting the product to arrive, can't wait to see it. When it arrives I will update the rating"

This is not uncommon. A good proportion of ratings happen without any correlation to the meaning of the rating labels. Sometimes someone miss click, and sometimes the user is completely stupid and does unexpected things. A user may say that some content is unreliable while being factually incorrect. 

One thing that could work is that if enough people clicked on 'dispute button' to dispute the rating given from some user, the data from that user would be considered "noise" until some debate was settled. Or we could just change the weight of his input. Maybe the user has to provide some explanation for his deviant input and his input weight would go back to normal. Otherwise few trolls could destroy the system by creating bots to steer the rating system to his preference. But it would be harder for him to justify each instance, and a user with a high proportion of ratings being disputed should raise a red flag.

On the UI provided on the white paper I can see 5 horizontal sliders. Maybe we could add optional explanations for the user to clarify why he gives "1 star importance" for this video about "very important topic". Users that give explanations for their ratings should have higher weights than users that do not provide any explanation. Maybe I could give a like on the rating+explanation from another user, updating my view on the platform and the final weight of his rating. 

Open & Welcome Thread - December 2020

I believe that many people will take COVID to their relatives during Christmas and the New Year, and I'm seriously thinking about starting some campaign to make people aware that they should at least this time consider wearing a mask for the next weeks and also stop socializing without a mask during this period in order to protect their relatives during the traditional holidays. I started developing a mobile app today to be released by December 12 and another (also related to COVID) to be released by December 20, I don't know what impact this will have on people's decisions, but I'm already leaving here publicly registered so that it works as a personal incentive not to pay attention to anything else until the two apps are released.
PM me if you want to join development, I'm using KivyMD to develop the apps. The first app lets you easily record your last social gatherings, saying how many people (with and without masks) were present, when it happened, the duration (short or long), and if were indoors or outdoors. Then it says how risky is going to see your relatives on Christmas or in any other date and what you should do to mitigate the risks. There are also other things, but this is the main idea. The second one is a COVID game, aiming to influence social behavior and public discourse during pandemic, details later.

Small Habits Shape Identity: How I became someone who exercises

I haven't exercised regularly in years, and last week I started thinking about how bad the consequences can be for me. I decided to do something, I wasn't in the mood, I thought "well, I'll do 10 push-ups. Maybe it's not much, but it's better than nothing". And I made it. You said "make it ridiculously easy", and now I just made 15 push-ups. Interesting. This is really easy. And I will do it again. Just a little more on the next time.

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