You have a gambling addiction. I don’t mean to be assertive, but for what it’s worth, I also am addicted. By clicking on this blog post, you’re expecting that it will be of high quality and at least somewhat worth your time to read. That’s a gamble; Substack is a...
In June 2025, Kalshi unveiled an ad campaign with the slogan “The world’s gone mad, trade it.” The ad was one of the first TV ads to ever be entirely generated by AI, and its content quickly was met with a slew of parodies and jokes all over the internet....
So gambling is an addiction by definition? I would have to disagree.
Thanks for your feedback!
Curious to hear and discuss disagreements, given all the downvotes.
You implied that in your previous message when you said "When you take risks in real life, there's no 'house'".
What would you argue the definition of gambling is? Also, do you agree that if we use the definition of "risking something for a potential gain," wouldn't that make every decision a gamble?
You're arguing that the definition of gambling is that there's a house moderating wagering on an outcome. To clarify, does that mean that you think that prediction markets are not gambling?
I am not saying that my definition of gambling is necessarily objectively correct, neither is yours, but I was just stating an opinion.
You have a gambling addiction.
I don’t mean to be assertive, but for what it’s worth, I also am addicted.
By clicking on this blog post, you’re expecting that it will be of high quality and at least somewhat worth your time to read. That’s a gamble; Substack is a slot machine.
The fact of the matter is that every decision you’ve ever made has been a gamble. The simple definition of the term is, at first principles, risking something for a potential gain. I challenge you to make a decision that has no potential adverse effects. It’s statistically impossible.
Classifying Polymarket as gambling is just as ambiguous as saying talking to AI is. We have... (read 536 more words →)
I'm 13 and I consider myself to have a sufficient understanding of Bayes, or at least I'd be able to write it out and use it in basic situations. This community seems to be filled of pretty smart people, I haven't been to enough events to make a sustained argument on this. I find this guide to be even more confusing than learning the formula itself, but maybe that's just my perception.
[Deleted] Claude's constitution seems more of an arrogant attempt to make OpenAI look less safe or ethical than Anthropic, and it seems like this document is being very overhyped. I think it's fairly unlikely that this document has any future effect on how Anthropic or Claude behaves, and they just published it to ride the hype wave of Claude Code.
Interesting, and I appreciate your thoughts. Why do you say we want PMs to "become more than an obscure game for nerds?" Dumb money is just a way for uninformed people to pay random people from CT in a very complicated fashion. If the goal of PMs is accurate predictions, having extra dumb money floating around won't improve the calibrations.
I'm not sure what your stance is on the purpose of PMs, but assuming it's more accurate foresight I think the ultimate goal is going to be finding the optimal incentive models for play-money markets.
Why do you think avoiding insider trading is a disadvantage? I don't disagree, but I'm curious to hear what you have to say.
Newbie EA question: Organizations like GWWC recommend giving 10%+ of your annual income as part of their pledge, but I'm wondering what the stance is on reinvesting your income, even if it's in low-return risk-free investments, and donating it when you're older so you give more money later instead of less money now.
In June 2025, Kalshi unveiled an ad campaign with the slogan “The world’s gone mad, trade it.” The ad was one of the first TV ads to ever be entirely generated by AI, and its content quickly was met with a slew of parodies and jokes all over the internet.
I must agree the ad was quite funny. I admire Kalshi and Polymarket in terms of their business, but I have some concerns about the objective of the ad.
It’s not that you can’t lose an enormous amount of money on prediction markets, but the win rate and general “fairness of the game” is much more optimal for the average trader. Prediction markets also... (read 381 more words →)
Interesting experiment! If I may ask, why did you decide to use Claude for this? ChatGPT and Gemini are still stronger than Claude in terms of vision capability. If bearable, you should try this again with different models and create a CoffeeBench.