hippke

If you ask GPT4 who's to fault for Emilia Galotti's death, it will give a perfect response. That's because there were likely hundreds of essays on this question in the training material. After all, this is a large language model. The more interesting question is on emergent knowledge: Learning on...

Artificial general intelligence is often assumed to improve exponentially through recursive self-improvement, resulting in a technological singularity. There are hidden assumptions in this model which should be made explicit so that their probability can be assessed. Let us assume that: 1. The Landauer limit holds, meaning that: * Reversible computations...

I previously explored the performance of a modern chess engine on old hardware (1, 2). Paul Christiano asked for the case of an old engine running on modern hardware. This is the topic of the present post. State of the art Through an online search, I found the CCRL Blitz...

Introduction I had explored measuring AI or hardware overhang in August 2020 using chess. Hardware overhang is when sufficient compute is available, but the algorithms are suboptimal. I examined the strongest chess engine of 2020, Stockfish 8, performing at 3,400 ELO under tournament conditions. When reducing compute to 1997 levels...

I enjoyed reading through people's views of the AGI Predictions. I know only a little about AI and a little bit more about SETI (Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence), so I decided to make a similar poll. The First Contact scenario with extraterrestrial intelligence shares certain similarities with the emergence of...

Summary: We are 3 orders of magnitude from the Landauer limit (calculations per kWh). After that, progress in AI can not come from throwing more compute at known algorithms. Instead, new methods must be develloped. This may cause another AI winter, where the rate of progress decreases. Over the last...

Scenario: A human user asks GPT-N a plain text question through the usual browser textbox interface. GPT-N answers in the form of text, which contains clever Javascript code. Instead of being displayed, the malicious code triggers a browser exploit and gets executed. Now GPT-N has an executable of its choice...