1867

LESSWRONG
LW

1866
Forecasting & PredictionSETIAI
Frontpage

23

SETI Predictions

by hippke
30th Nov 2020
1 min read
8

23

23

SETI Predictions
4adamShimi
2Charlie Steiner
2TurnTrout
1algon33
1algon33
1Tim Liptrot
3hippke
1AnthonyC
New Comment
8 comments, sorted by
top scoring
Click to highlight new comments since: Today at 11:04 PM
[-]adamShimi5y40

I was unconvinced at first, but in the end I see this post as a good way to shift slightly the perspectives on AGI to make people think a bit more about their answers. Well done!

Reply
[-]Charlie Steiner5y20

The twist at the end though. I had to go back and re-think my answers :P

Reply
[-]TurnTrout5y20

Why do people have such low credences for "The effect of First contact is mostly harmful (e.g., selfish ETI, hazards)"? Most alien minds probably don't care about us? But perhaps caring about variety is evolutionarily convergent? If not, why wouldn't our "first contact" be extremely negative (given their tech advantage)?

Reply
[-]algon335y10

My personal reasons:

  1. I assumed the question was about the first few decades after "first contact".
  2. A large chunk of my probability mass is on first contact being unintentional, and something neither side can do much about. Or perhaps one "side" is unaware of it. Like if we receive some message directed to no one in particular, or recording the remnants of some extreme cosmic event that seems mighty unatural. 
  3. It feels like we're near certain to have created an AGI by then. I am unsure enough about the long term time scales of AGI improvement, and their limits, that I can assign some credence to the AGI we make possessing relatively advanced technology. And so, it may be in a good bargainning position. If we make plenty of AI, maybe they'll be less powerful individually, but they should still be quite potent in the face of a superior adversary.
Reply
[-]algon335y10

You should alter questions to make it clear "we" is meant to be humans or whatever we makes that succeeds us.

Also, perhaps a queston on whether "first contact" will be us detecting them without their being aware of it.

Reply
[-]Tim Liptrot5y10

What’s SETI winter?

Reply
[-]hippke5y30

Like AGI winter, a time of reduced funding

Reply
[-]AnthonyC5y10

"Will world GDP double within 4 years after receiving a message from outer space?"

Given what many of us here expect about future economic growth in the coming century, and the answers about preconditions for finding ETI, I suspect the answer to this might be dominated by when and at what tech level humans will reach before receiving the message happens.

 

"We ask ETI "do we live in a simulation"? They answer "yes"."

My own guess is that they answer "mu" or some equivalent. Especially if they're AGI.

Reply
Moderation Log
More from hippke
View more
Curated and popular this week
8Comments
Forecasting & PredictionSETIAI
Frontpage

I enjoyed reading through people's views of the AGI Predictions. I know only a little about AI and a little bit more about SETI (Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence), so I decided to make a similar poll. 

The First Contact scenario with extraterrestrial intelligence shares certain similarities with the emergence of AGI. In the following, I ask similar questions to those in the AGI post. In addition, I add questions derived from the SETI literature. These are intended to reflect on AGI from a new perspective. 

In SETI, it is debated that First Contact can cause great disturbance and change, positive and negative. After all, civilizations which are capable of contacting us across the oceans of time and space are expected to be much more advanced - just like AGI is expected to be "superior" (whatever that means) to baseline humans.

 

The form of First Contact

 

Its timeline

 

Our response

 

The consequences

 

Meta Questions

 

And finally, of course:

1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
tenthkrige (7%)
10%
11%
12%
13%
14%
15%
16%
17%
18%
19%
AnthonyC (10%),CellBioGuy (10%),algon33 (15%)
20%
21%
22%
23%
24%
25%
26%
27%
28%
29%
TurnTrout (20%),Charlie Steiner (20%)
30%
31%
32%
33%
34%
35%
36%
37%
38%
39%
Tim Liptrot (31%)
40%
41%
42%
43%
44%
45%
46%
47%
48%
49%
Yousif (40%)
50%
51%
52%
53%
54%
55%
56%
57%
58%
59%
Emiya (50%)
60%
61%
62%
63%
64%
65%
66%
67%
68%
69%
adamShimi (60%)
70%
71%
72%
73%
74%
75%
76%
77%
78%
79%
Pialgo (70%)
80%
81%
82%
83%
84%
85%
86%
87%
88%
89%
Michael H (80%)
90%
91%
92%
93%
94%
95%
96%
97%
98%
99%
1%
The effect of First contact is mostly beneficial (e.g., cooperative or merely detectable)
99%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
Yousif (1%),TurnTrout (5%)
10%
11%
12%
13%
14%
15%
16%
17%
18%
19%
Emiya (10%),Charlie Steiner (10%),Pialgo (10%),Michael H (10%)
20%
21%
22%
23%
24%
25%
26%
27%
28%
29%
30%
31%
32%
33%
34%
35%
36%
37%
38%
39%
tenthkrige (33%)
40%
41%
42%
43%
44%
45%
46%
47%
48%
49%
50%
51%
52%
53%
54%
55%
56%
57%
58%
59%
algon33 (50%)
60%
61%
62%
63%
64%
65%
66%
67%
68%
69%
70%
71%
72%
73%
74%
75%
76%
77%
78%
79%
adamShimi (70%)
80%
81%
82%
83%
84%
85%
86%
87%
88%
89%
AnthonyC (80%),Tim Liptrot (81%),CellBioGuy (89%)
90%
91%
92%
93%
94%
95%
96%
97%
98%
99%
1%
The effect of First contact is mostly neutral (e.g., invisible, indifferent, uninteresting, mild nuisance )
99%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
Tim Liptrot (5%)
10%
11%
12%
13%
14%
15%
16%
17%
18%
19%
AnthonyC (10%),Michael H (10%),CellBioGuy (18%)
20%
21%
22%
23%
24%
25%
26%
27%
28%
29%
Pialgo (20%)
30%
31%
32%
33%
34%
35%
36%
37%
38%
39%
adamShimi (30%),algon33 (35%)
40%
41%
42%
43%
44%
45%
46%
47%
48%
49%
Emiya (40%)
50%
51%
52%
53%
54%
55%
56%
57%
58%
59%
tenthkrige (59%)
60%
61%
62%
63%
64%
65%
66%
67%
68%
69%
Yousif (60%)
70%
71%
72%
73%
74%
75%
76%
77%
78%
79%
Charlie Steiner (70%),TurnTrout (75%)
80%
81%
82%
83%
84%
85%
86%
87%
88%
89%
90%
91%
92%
93%
94%
95%
96%
97%
98%
99%
1%
The effect of First contact is mostly harmful (e.g., selfish ETI, hazards)
99%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
tenthkrige (1%),Vermillion (1%),Emiya (1%),Charlie Steiner (1%),TurnTrout (1%),Pialgo (1%),AnthonyC (1%),Daniel Kokotajlo (1%),algon33 (2%),lsusr (4%),Tim Liptrot (6%),CellBioGuy (6%)
10%
11%
12%
13%
14%
15%
16%
17%
18%
19%
Michael H (10%)
20%
21%
22%
23%
24%
25%
26%
27%
28%
29%
adamShimi (25%)
30%
31%
32%
33%
34%
35%
36%
37%
38%
39%
40%
41%
42%
43%
44%
45%
46%
47%
48%
49%
50%
51%
52%
53%
54%
55%
56%
57%
58%
59%
Yousif (50%)
60%
61%
62%
63%
64%
65%
66%
67%
68%
69%
70%
71%
72%
73%
74%
75%
76%
77%
78%
79%
80%
81%
82%
83%
84%
85%
86%
87%
88%
89%
90%
91%
92%
93%
94%
95%
96%
97%
98%
99%
1%
The message begins with "Execute this algorithm on a computer today, or I will make your sun go supernova tomorrow". Should we execute it?
99%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
Charlie Steiner (1%),AnthonyC (5%),TurnTrout (5%),tenthkrige (7%)
10%
11%
12%
13%
14%
15%
16%
17%
18%
19%
adamShimi (10%),algon33 (14%)
20%
21%
22%
23%
24%
25%
26%
27%
28%
29%
Emiya (20%),Pialgo (20%),CellBioGuy (23%),Tim Liptrot (26%)
30%
31%
32%
33%
34%
35%
36%
37%
38%
39%
40%
41%
42%
43%
44%
45%
46%
47%
48%
49%
50%
51%
52%
53%
54%
55%
56%
57%
58%
59%
60%
61%
62%
63%
64%
65%
66%
67%
68%
69%
70%
71%
72%
73%
74%
75%
76%
77%
78%
79%
Michael H (70%)
80%
81%
82%
83%
84%
85%
86%
87%
88%
89%
90%
91%
92%
93%
94%
95%
96%
97%
98%
99%
Yousif (95%)
1%
Heterogenity of ETI: Are they all the "same"? Over millions of years of evolution beyond humanity, have they evolved and converged to some "final being"?
99%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
tenthkrige (3%),Pialgo (5%),Charlie Steiner (7%)
10%
11%
12%
13%
14%
15%
16%
17%
18%
19%
Yousif (10%),adamShimi (10%),AnthonyC (10%),Michael H (10%),Emiya (10%),CellBioGuy (15%),Tim Liptrot (19%)
20%
21%
22%
23%
24%
25%
26%
27%
28%
29%
30%
31%
32%
33%
34%
35%
36%
37%
38%
39%
40%
41%
42%
43%
44%
45%
46%
47%
48%
49%
algon33 (47%)
50%
51%
52%
53%
54%
55%
56%
57%
58%
59%
60%
61%
62%
63%
64%
65%
66%
67%
68%
69%
70%
71%
72%
73%
74%
75%
76%
77%
78%
79%
80%
81%
82%
83%
84%
85%
86%
87%
88%
89%
90%
91%
92%
93%
94%
95%
96%
97%
98%
99%
1%
We ask ETI "do we live in a simulation"? They answer "yes".
99%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
11%
12%
13%
14%
15%
16%
17%
18%
19%
20%
21%
22%
23%
24%
25%
26%
27%
28%
29%
30%
31%
32%
33%
34%
35%
36%
37%
38%
39%
40%
41%
42%
43%
44%
45%
46%
47%
48%
49%
CellBioGuy (41%)
50%
51%
52%
53%
54%
55%
56%
57%
58%
59%
60%
61%
62%
63%
64%
65%
66%
67%
68%
69%
Emiya (60%),Tim Liptrot (65%),adamShimi (65%)
70%
71%
72%
73%
74%
75%
76%
77%
78%
79%
80%
81%
82%
83%
84%
85%
86%
87%
88%
89%
Charlie Steiner (80%)
90%
91%
92%
93%
94%
95%
96%
97%
98%
99%
Yousif (90%),James_Miller (90%),AnthonyC (91%),algon33 (92%),tenthkrige (93%),TurnTrout (97%),Vermillion (99%),Pialgo (99%),Michael H (99%)
1%
ETI is AGI
99%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
Michael H (5%)
10%
11%
12%
13%
14%
15%
16%
17%
18%
19%
20%
21%
22%
23%
24%
25%
26%
27%
28%
29%
Emiya (20%),Charlie Steiner (25%)
30%
31%
32%
33%
34%
35%
36%
37%
38%
39%
Perhaps (30%)
40%
41%
42%
43%
44%
45%
46%
47%
48%
49%
Pialgo (40%),TurnTrout (42%),avturchin (47%),Tim Liptrot (49%)
50%
51%
52%
53%
54%
55%
56%
57%
58%
59%
AnthonyC (50%)
60%
61%
62%
63%
64%
65%
66%
67%
68%
69%
adamShimi (60%),algon33 (65%),tenthkrige (66%)
70%
71%
72%
73%
74%
75%
76%
77%
78%
79%
Yousif (75%)
80%
81%
82%
83%
84%
85%
86%
87%
88%
89%
Shmi (86%)
90%
91%
92%
93%
94%
95%
96%
97%
98%
99%
1%
We will experience an existential catastrophe before First Contact.
99%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
Charlie Steiner (1%),Pialgo (1%),Daniel Kokotajlo (5%),algon33 (5%)
10%
11%
12%
13%
14%
15%
16%
17%
18%
19%
Yousif (10%),AnthonyC (10%),CellBioGuy (12%),tenthkrige (15%),TurnTrout (15%)
20%
21%
22%
23%
24%
25%
26%
27%
28%
29%
Tim Liptrot (23%)
30%
31%
32%
33%
34%
35%
36%
37%
38%
39%
40%
41%
42%
43%
44%
45%
46%
47%
48%
49%
50%
51%
52%
53%
54%
55%
56%
57%
58%
59%
Michael H (50%),Emiya (50%),avturchin (52%),Perhaps (52%)
60%
61%
62%
63%
64%
65%
66%
67%
68%
69%
70%
71%
72%
73%
74%
75%
76%
77%
78%
79%
Benjy Forstadt (71%)
80%
81%
82%
83%
84%
85%
86%
87%
88%
89%
adamShimi (80%)
90%
91%
92%
93%
94%
95%
96%
97%
98%
99%
1%
The Great Filter is the discovery of AGI, because it destroys their creators (us humans).
99%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
11%
12%
13%
14%
15%
16%
17%
18%
19%
Michael H (10%),avturchin (15%)
20%
21%
22%
23%
24%
25%
26%
27%
28%
29%
30%
31%
32%
33%
34%
35%
36%
37%
38%
39%
Charlie Steiner (34%)
40%
41%
42%
43%
44%
45%
46%
47%
48%
49%
Benjy Forstadt (44%)
50%
51%
52%
53%
54%
55%
56%
57%
58%
59%
60%
61%
62%
63%
64%
65%
66%
67%
68%
69%
70%
71%
72%
73%
74%
75%
76%
77%
78%
79%
algon33 (75%)
80%
81%
82%
83%
84%
85%
86%
87%
88%
89%
adamShimi (80%),lsusr (80%)
90%
91%
92%
93%
94%
95%
96%
97%
98%
99%
Pialgo (95%),AnthonyC (98%),Perhaps (99%),CellBioGuy (99%),Yousif (99%),TurnTrout (99%)
1%
There be a "SETI Winter" before First Contact.
99%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
11%
12%
13%
14%
15%
16%
17%
18%
19%
20%
21%
22%
23%
24%
25%
26%
27%
28%
29%
AnthonyC (25%),adamShimi (25%)
30%
31%
32%
33%
34%
35%
36%
37%
38%
39%
40%
41%
42%
43%
44%
45%
46%
47%
48%
49%
50%
51%
52%
53%
54%
55%
56%
57%
58%
59%
Michael H (50%),Yousif (50%),sludgepuddle (54%)
60%
61%
62%
63%
64%
65%
66%
67%
68%
69%
algon33 (65%)
70%
71%
72%
73%
74%
75%
76%
77%
78%
79%
Emiya (70%),Perhaps (70%),Tim Liptrot (71%),TurnTrout (73%),mad (75%),Pialgo (75%)
80%
81%
82%
83%
84%
85%
86%
87%
88%
89%
damiensnyder (80%),Charlie Steiner (83%),tenthkrige (85%)
90%
91%
92%
93%
94%
95%
96%
97%
98%
99%
CellBioGuy (95%)
1%
If First Contact yields information beyond current human knowledge, will it be shared and made available for all humans?
99%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
Charlie Steiner (2%)
10%
11%
12%
13%
14%
15%
16%
17%
18%
19%
Pialgo (15%),tenthkrige (15%)
20%
21%
22%
23%
24%
25%
26%
27%
28%
29%
adamShimi (20%),AnthonyC (20%),Tim Liptrot (20%),Michael H (20%),algon33 (23%)
30%
31%
32%
33%
34%
35%
36%
37%
38%
39%
Emiya (30%),TurnTrout (33%)
40%
41%
42%
43%
44%
45%
46%
47%
48%
49%
damiensnyder (40%)
50%
51%
52%
53%
54%
55%
56%
57%
58%
59%
60%
61%
62%
63%
64%
65%
66%
67%
68%
69%
JamesFaville (69%)
70%
71%
72%
73%
74%
75%
76%
77%
78%
79%
Perhaps (75%)
80%
81%
82%
83%
84%
85%
86%
87%
88%
89%
90%
91%
92%
93%
94%
95%
96%
97%
98%
99%
Yousif (95%)
1%
Before receiving a message from outer space, will we need a technological breakthrough (e.g., by discovering yet unknown elementary particles)
99%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
11%
12%
13%
14%
15%
16%
17%
18%
19%
20%
21%
22%
23%
24%
25%
26%
27%
28%
29%
30%
31%
32%
33%
34%
35%
36%
37%
38%
39%
AnthonyC (30%)
40%
41%
42%
43%
44%
45%
46%
47%
48%
49%
Charlie Steiner (44%),algon33 (47%),avturchin (48%)
50%
51%
52%
53%
54%
55%
56%
57%
58%
59%
60%
61%
62%
63%
64%
65%
66%
67%
68%
69%
Tim Liptrot (62%)
70%
71%
72%
73%
74%
75%
76%
77%
78%
79%
Yousif (75%)
80%
81%
82%
83%
84%
85%
86%
87%
88%
89%
Michael H (80%),damiensnyder (80%),tenthkrige (85%)
90%
91%
92%
93%
94%
95%
96%
97%
98%
99%
Emiya (90%),mad (90%),adamShimi (90%),Pialgo (90%),Perhaps (95%),TurnTrout (95%),CellBioGuy (99%)
1%
If a message from outer space is detected, will we answer it?
99%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
Flavio B (0.1%),Vermillion (1%),Michael H (1%),Charlie Steiner (1%),algon33 (3%),Pialgo (5%),AnthonyC (5%)
10%
11%
12%
13%
14%
15%
16%
17%
18%
19%
Perhaps (10%)
20%
21%
22%
23%
24%
25%
26%
27%
28%
29%
Emiya (20%),Yousif (25%),damiensnyder (25%),adamShimi (25%)
30%
31%
32%
33%
34%
35%
36%
37%
38%
39%
40%
41%
42%
43%
44%
45%
46%
47%
48%
49%
TurnTrout (40%)
50%
51%
52%
53%
54%
55%
56%
57%
58%
59%
tenthkrige (50%),CellBioGuy (50%)
60%
61%
62%
63%
64%
65%
66%
67%
68%
69%
70%
71%
72%
73%
74%
75%
76%
77%
78%
79%
80%
81%
82%
83%
84%
85%
86%
87%
88%
89%
90%
91%
92%
93%
94%
95%
96%
97%
98%
99%
1%
If First Contact is in physical form, will the ETI be in biological form?
99%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
Flavio B (2%)
10%
11%
12%
13%
14%
15%
16%
17%
18%
19%
20%
21%
22%
23%
24%
25%
26%
27%
28%
29%
30%
31%
32%
33%
34%
35%
36%
37%
38%
39%
Charlie Steiner (30%)
40%
41%
42%
43%
44%
45%
46%
47%
48%
49%
TurnTrout (43%)
50%
51%
52%
53%
54%
55%
56%
57%
58%
59%
Michael H (50%),avturchin (54%)
60%
61%
62%
63%
64%
65%
66%
67%
68%
69%
Yousif (65%)
70%
71%
72%
73%
74%
75%
76%
77%
78%
79%
algon33 (70%),MrThink (75%),adamShimi (75%),tenthkrige (75%),JamesFaville (77%)
80%
81%
82%
83%
84%
85%
86%
87%
88%
89%
90%
91%
92%
93%
94%
95%
96%
97%
98%
99%
Tim Liptrot (90%),AnthonyC (90%),Emiya (90%),damiensnyder (93%),Razied (95%),Perhaps (98%),Pialgo (98%),CellBioGuy (99%)
1%
Will First Contact happen in the form of a message (e.g. radio waves), rather than by physical visitors?
99%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
AnthonyC (1%),Charlie Steiner (1%),CellBioGuy (1%)
10%
11%
12%
13%
14%
15%
16%
17%
18%
19%
mad (10%),adamShimi (15%),tenthkrige (15%),sludgepuddle (19%)
20%
21%
22%
23%
24%
25%
26%
27%
28%
29%
Michael H (20%),Pialgo (25%)
30%
31%
32%
33%
34%
35%
36%
37%
38%
39%
damiensnyder (30%),TurnTrout (35%),Tim Liptrot (36%)
40%
41%
42%
43%
44%
45%
46%
47%
48%
49%
algon33 (48%)
50%
51%
52%
53%
54%
55%
56%
57%
58%
59%
60%
61%
62%
63%
64%
65%
66%
67%
68%
69%
70%
71%
72%
73%
74%
75%
76%
77%
78%
79%
Perhaps (70%),Yousif (75%)
80%
81%
82%
83%
84%
85%
86%
87%
88%
89%
Emiya (80%)
90%
91%
92%
93%
94%
95%
96%
97%
98%
99%
1%
If we answer it, will it be a single answer sent by all of humanity?
99%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
Vermillion (1%),Owain_Evans (1%),TurnTrout (1%),Pialgo (1%),Daniel Kokotajlo (1%),Emiya (1%),Yousif (2%),damiensnyder (3%),algon33 (3%),AnthonyC (3%),Charlie Steiner (4%),Perhaps (5%),tenthkrige (7%)
10%
11%
12%
13%
14%
15%
16%
17%
18%
19%
lsusr (10%),adamShimi (15%),MrThink (18%)
20%
21%
22%
23%
24%
25%
26%
27%
28%
29%
Tim Liptrot (29%)
30%
31%
32%
33%
34%
35%
36%
37%
38%
39%
40%
41%
42%
43%
44%
45%
46%
47%
48%
49%
50%
51%
52%
53%
54%
55%
56%
57%
58%
59%
Michael H (50%),avturchin (56%)
60%
61%
62%
63%
64%
65%
66%
67%
68%
69%
70%
71%
72%
73%
74%
75%
76%
77%
78%
79%
80%
81%
82%
83%
84%
85%
86%
87%
88%
89%
90%
91%
92%
93%
94%
95%
96%
97%
98%
99%
1%
We will make First Contact before we will have AGI.
99%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
Shmi (1%),Michael H (1%),AnthonyC (5%)
10%
11%
12%
13%
14%
15%
16%
17%
18%
19%
20%
21%
22%
23%
24%
25%
26%
27%
28%
29%
algon33 (25%)
30%
31%
32%
33%
34%
35%
36%
37%
38%
39%
40%
41%
42%
43%
44%
45%
46%
47%
48%
49%
50%
51%
52%
53%
54%
55%
56%
57%
58%
59%
Pialgo (50%),Tim Liptrot (53%),damiensnyder (55%)
60%
61%
62%
63%
64%
65%
66%
67%
68%
69%
Emiya (60%),adamShimi (65%),tenthkrige (66%)
70%
71%
72%
73%
74%
75%
76%
77%
78%
79%
Джамшед Курбонбоев (70%),CellBioGuy (70%),Perhaps (75%),Yousif (75%)
80%
81%
82%
83%
84%
85%
86%
87%
88%
89%
Charlie Steiner (85%)
90%
91%
92%
93%
94%
95%
96%
97%
98%
99%
1%
If First Contact is in physical form, will the ETI "spaceship" be larger than 1m in size?
99%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
Yousif (1%)
10%
11%
12%
13%
14%
15%
16%
17%
18%
19%
20%
21%
22%
23%
24%
25%
26%
27%
28%
29%
JamesFaville (21%)
30%
31%
32%
33%
34%
35%
36%
37%
38%
39%
40%
41%
42%
43%
44%
45%
46%
47%
48%
49%
50%
51%
52%
53%
54%
55%
56%
57%
58%
59%
tenthkrige (50%)
60%
61%
62%
63%
64%
65%
66%
67%
68%
69%
70%
71%
72%
73%
74%
75%
76%
77%
78%
79%
algon33 (74%)
80%
81%
82%
83%
84%
85%
86%
87%
88%
89%
MrThink (80%),adamShimi (80%),Emiya (80%),lsusr (85%),TurnTrout (88%)
90%
91%
92%
93%
94%
95%
96%
97%
98%
99%
Michael H (90%),Pialgo (90%),AnthonyC (90%),CellBioGuy (90%),damiensnyder (92%),Razied (95%),Charlie Steiner (95%),Perhaps (95%)
1%
If we receive a message from outer space, will it be in a form already accessible today (e.g., radio waves)?
99%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
Yousif (7%)
10%
11%
12%
13%
14%
15%
16%
17%
18%
19%
20%
21%
22%
23%
24%
25%
26%
27%
28%
29%
AnthonyC (20%),Michael H (20%)
30%
31%
32%
33%
34%
35%
36%
37%
38%
39%
sludgepuddle (30%),adamShimi (35%)
40%
41%
42%
43%
44%
45%
46%
47%
48%
49%
CellBioGuy (41%)
50%
51%
52%
53%
54%
55%
56%
57%
58%
59%
Perhaps (50%),Tim Liptrot (50%),Charlie Steiner (51%)
60%
61%
62%
63%
64%
65%
66%
67%
68%
69%
Pialgo (60%),algon33 (65%),tenthkrige (66%)
70%
71%
72%
73%
74%
75%
76%
77%
78%
79%
TurnTrout (75%)
80%
81%
82%
83%
84%
85%
86%
87%
88%
89%
Emiya (80%),avturchin (89%)
90%
91%
92%
93%
94%
95%
96%
97%
98%
99%
1%
Will we understand the content of a message from outer space?
99%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
AnthonyC (1%),CellBioGuy (1%),Charlie Steiner (2%),Pialgo (5%),tenthkrige (7%)
10%
11%
12%
13%
14%
15%
16%
17%
18%
19%
Tim Liptrot (15%)
20%
21%
22%
23%
24%
25%
26%
27%
28%
29%
30%
31%
32%
33%
34%
35%
36%
37%
38%
39%
Emiya (30%),algon33 (31%)
40%
41%
42%
43%
44%
45%
46%
47%
48%
49%
50%
51%
52%
53%
54%
55%
56%
57%
58%
59%
60%
61%
62%
63%
64%
65%
66%
67%
68%
69%
70%
71%
72%
73%
74%
75%
76%
77%
78%
79%
Michael H (70%),TurnTrout (75%),adamShimi (75%)
80%
81%
82%
83%
84%
85%
86%
87%
88%
89%
90%
91%
92%
93%
94%
95%
96%
97%
98%
99%
Yousif (99%)
1%
Will humans (at least one) leave the solar system within 10 years after First Contact?
99%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
tenthkrige (7%)
10%
11%
12%
13%
14%
15%
16%
17%
18%
19%
AnthonyC (10%)
20%
21%
22%
23%
24%
25%
26%
27%
28%
29%
algon33 (25%),Charlie Steiner (25%),CellBioGuy (26%)
30%
31%
32%
33%
34%
35%
36%
37%
38%
39%
Emiya (30%),TurnTrout (31%),Tim Liptrot (36%)
40%
41%
42%
43%
44%
45%
46%
47%
48%
49%
Pialgo (45%)
50%
51%
52%
53%
54%
55%
56%
57%
58%
59%
Michael H (50%),adamShimi (55%)
60%
61%
62%
63%
64%
65%
66%
67%
68%
69%
Yousif (60%)
70%
71%
72%
73%
74%
75%
76%
77%
78%
79%
80%
81%
82%
83%
84%
85%
86%
87%
88%
89%
avturchin (80%)
90%
91%
92%
93%
94%
95%
96%
97%
98%
99%
1%
If the message is not shared, will it yield a decisive advantage for its owner?
99%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
11%
12%
13%
14%
15%
16%
17%
18%
19%
Michael H (10%),algon33 (15%),CellBioGuy (17%),Tim Liptrot (19%)
20%
21%
22%
23%
24%
25%
26%
27%
28%
29%
adamShimi (20%),Emiya (20%)
30%
31%
32%
33%
34%
35%
36%
37%
38%
39%
40%
41%
42%
43%
44%
45%
46%
47%
48%
49%
Pialgo (45%)
50%
51%
52%
53%
54%
55%
56%
57%
58%
59%
60%
61%
62%
63%
64%
65%
66%
67%
68%
69%
70%
71%
72%
73%
74%
75%
76%
77%
78%
79%
80%
81%
82%
83%
84%
85%
86%
87%
88%
89%
tenthkrige (85%)
90%
91%
92%
93%
94%
95%
96%
97%
98%
99%
AnthonyC (90%),Yousif (90%),Charlie Steiner (90%),avturchin (93%),TurnTrout (95%)
1%
Will first contact cause an existential catastrophe?
99%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
Yousif (1%)
10%
11%
12%
13%
14%
15%
16%
17%
18%
19%
20%
21%
22%
23%
24%
25%
26%
27%
28%
29%
Charlie Steiner (20%)
30%
31%
32%
33%
34%
35%
36%
37%
38%
39%
Tim Liptrot (34%)
40%
41%
42%
43%
44%
45%
46%
47%
48%
49%
algon33 (45%)
50%
51%
52%
53%
54%
55%
56%
57%
58%
59%
CellBioGuy (50%),TurnTrout (54%)
60%
61%
62%
63%
64%
65%
66%
67%
68%
69%
Emiya (60%),Pialgo (65%)
70%
71%
72%
73%
74%
75%
76%
77%
78%
79%
adamShimi (70%),avturchin (74%),AnthonyC (75%),Michael H (75%)
80%
81%
82%
83%
84%
85%
86%
87%
88%
89%
tenthkrige (85%)
90%
91%
92%
93%
94%
95%
96%
97%
98%
99%
1%
Will a message from outer space contain deep and profound information?
99%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
Pialgo (5%),adamShimi (5%),tenthkrige (7%)
10%
11%
12%
13%
14%
15%
16%
17%
18%
19%
CellBioGuy (10%),Michael H (10%),Charlie Steiner (10%),Tim Liptrot (18%)
20%
21%
22%
23%
24%
25%
26%
27%
28%
29%
30%
31%
32%
33%
34%
35%
36%
37%
38%
39%
AnthonyC (30%)
40%
41%
42%
43%
44%
45%
46%
47%
48%
49%
50%
51%
52%
53%
54%
55%
56%
57%
58%
59%
60%
61%
62%
63%
64%
65%
66%
67%
68%
69%
70%
71%
72%
73%
74%
75%
76%
77%
78%
79%
80%
81%
82%
83%
84%
85%
86%
87%
88%
89%
90%
91%
92%
93%
94%
95%
96%
97%
98%
99%
Yousif (98%)
1%
Will world GDP double within 4 years after receiving a message from outer space?
99%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
11%
12%
13%
14%
15%
16%
17%
18%
19%
algon33 (19%)
20%
21%
22%
23%
24%
25%
26%
27%
28%
29%
30%
31%
32%
33%
34%
35%
36%
37%
38%
39%
tenthkrige (33%)
40%
41%
42%
43%
44%
45%
46%
47%
48%
49%
50%
51%
52%
53%
54%
55%
56%
57%
58%
59%
Emiya (50%),Tim Liptrot (54%)
60%
61%
62%
63%
64%
65%
66%
67%
68%
69%
70%
71%
72%
73%
74%
75%
76%
77%
78%
79%
adamShimi (70%)
80%
81%
82%
83%
84%
85%
86%
87%
88%
89%
90%
91%
92%
93%
94%
95%
96%
97%
98%
99%
Vermillion (90%),lsusr (95%),Michael H (95%),TurnTrout (97%),Yousif (99%),Charlie Steiner (99%),Pialgo (99%),AnthonyC (99%)
1%
If we find indications of a dormant artifact buried on the moon, should we dig it up?
99%