10/50/90% chance of GPT-N Transformative AI?
In Developmental Stages of GPTs, orthonormal explains why we might need "zero more cognitive breakthroughs" to reach transformative AI, aka "an AI capable of making an Industrial Revolution sized impact". More specifically, he says that "basically, GPT-6 or GPT-7 might do it". Besides, Are we in an AI overhang? makes...
Aug 9, 202024