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AI Box Log

How do you even make a quantum coin with 1/googolplex chance?

The Noddy problem

What about your past self? If Night Guy can predict what Morning Guy will do, Morning Guy is effectively threatening his past self.

Death Note, Anonymity, and Information Theory

But... but... Light actually won, didn't he? At least in the short run - he managed to defeat L. I was always under the impression that some of these "mistakes" were committed by Light deliberately in order to lure L.

[Draft] Holy Bayesian Multiverse, Batman!

Is there an analogous experiment for Tegmark's multiverse?

You set up an experiment so that you survive only if some outcome, anticipated by your highly improbable theory of physics, is true.

Then you wake up in a world which is with high probability governed by your theory.

[Draft] Holy Bayesian Multiverse, Batman!

If I understand correctly, under MW you anticipate the experience of surviving with probability 1, and under C with probability 0.5. I don't think that's justified.

In both cases the probability should be either conditional on "being there to experience anything" (and equal 1), OR unconditional (equal the "external" probability of survival, 0.5). This is something in between. You take the external probability in C, but condition on the surviving branches in MW.

Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 7

To go with the TV series analogy proposed by Eliezer, maybe it could be an end of Season 1?

"Add to Friends" does something or not?

It adds a "friend" CSS class to your friend's username everywhere, so you can add an user style or some other hack to highlight it. There is probably a reason LessWrong doesn't do it by default, though.

Meta: A 5 karma requirement to post in discussion

I have no familiarity with Reddit/Lesswrong codebase, but isn't this (r2/r2/models/subreddit.py) the only relevant place?

elif self == Subreddit._by_name(g.default_sr) and user.safe_karma >= g.karma_to_post:

So it's a matter of changing that g.karma_to_post (which apparently is a global configuration variable) into a subreddit's option (like the ones defines on top of the file).

(And, of course, applying that change to the database, which I have no idea about, but this also shouldn't be hard...)

ETA: Or, if I understand the code correctly, one could just change elif self.type == 'public': (a few lines above) to elif self.type == 'public' and user.safe_karma >= 1:, but it's a dirty hack.)

Simpson's Paradox

Oh, right. Somehow I was expecting it to be 40 and 0.4. Now it makes sense.

Simpson's Paradox

Something is wrong with the numbers here:

The probability that a randomly chosen man surived given that they were given treatment A is 40/100 = 0.2

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