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5ike's Shortform
6y
11
Simple proofs of the age of the universe (or other things)
ike3y111

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dendrochronology tree rings gets us 14k years

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San Juan, Puerto Rico – ACX Meetups Everywhere 2022
ike3y20

Two of us showed up, we'll be hanging out in the back under the large square white tent if anyone else is looking

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How to bet against civilizational adequacy?
ike3y41

Maybe buying IPV4 addresses? https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=32416043 some discussion here.

Civilization has been trying to move to ipv6 for decades, but IPV4 is still widespread and commands a premium. With more internet growth this could blow up more.

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Addendum: A non-magical explanation of Jeffrey Epstein
ike3y43

Yeah, the version I liked was that someone else bribed a guard/guards into letting him kill himself but that's basically the same.

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Do a cost-benefit analysis of your technology usage
ike3y100

It's been hard keeping to it, but I do notice myself being more productive when I do. One thing that has stayed is not having an email tab always open. Hoping that over time I get better at following it strictly; it has such immediate positive effects that I'm not so worried I'll gradually forget and stop, like happened with other productivity attempts (e.g. making to-do lists.)

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Are the fundamental physical constants computable?
ike3y20

Consider the shortest algorithm that simulates the universe perfectly.

Meaningless, on my metaphysics. Definition is circular - in order to define fundamental you have to already assume that the universe can be simulated "perfectly", but to define a perfect simulation you'll need to rely on concepts like "fundamental", or "external reality".

Assuming that the way the universe looks changes continuously with these constants, it seems strange to insist that if the changes are so small you can't notice them they don't exist.

The assumption is meaningless. It seems strange to me to insist that something "exists", especially infinities, which are never observable. On our actual known physics we have strict limits on how much information can be contained in a finite amount of space, but even if we didn't know that you can't define these concepts in a noncircular manner.

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Are the fundamental physical constants computable?
ike3y20

On my metaphysics it's not coherent to talk about "fundamental" constants, for multiple reasons. Try tabooing that and ask about what, if anything, is actually meant.

If you can't measure any of these constants past a hundred significant digits, what does it mean to talk about the constant having any digits beyond that? And what does it mean for a constant to be fundamental?

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Do a cost-benefit analysis of your technology usage
ike3y50

I really liked this post. As a result of reading it, I'm trialling the following:

Every time I go on my computer or phone, I need to specifically have a plan for one specific thing I am going to do. This can be "check all notifications from X/Y/Z), or "write this one long email", or even, "15 minutes of unstructured time", but it should always be intentional. If I get the urge to do something else, I need to save it for a future session, which can be immediately afterwards.

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Your Enemies Can Use Your Prediction Markets Against You
ike3y20

Yes, but you said they're buying the no-coup shares, which subsidizes a coup. Article contradicts itself. 

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Your Enemies Can Use Your Prediction Markets Against You
ike3y20

Mars buys shares that pay out 5 million Dogecoin if there is not a coup

Suppose the prior implied probability of a regime change is 0.20. Mars can buy its shares for 1 million Dogecoin, pocketing a risk-free net utility equivalent to 4 million Dogecoin.

I'm confused - if the prior probability of a coup is 20% and Mars is buying shares that pay out if no coup, Mars would pay 4M?

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Roko's Basilisk
10y
-6Crypto low risk profits
3y
3
13Predictions for 2022
4y
2
13Mega Links Post for Mar-Apr-May 2021
4y
0
128Tales from Prediction Markets
4y
15
6Links for Feb 2021
4y
0
8Links for January 2021
4y
1
12Links for Dec 2020
5y
0
6Links for Nov 2020
5y
2
24The Exploitability/Explainability Frontier
5y
4
7Solomonoff Induction and Sleeping Beauty
5y
0
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