jacobjacob's Comments

March Coronavirus Open Thread
In a few weeks, a number of public figures may find themselves doing an awkward about-face from "masks don't work and no one should wear them" to "masks do work and they are mandatory".

I want to record and reward how this prediction seems to be correct: https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/04/02/coronavirus-facemasks-policyreversal/

March 24th: Daily Coronavirus Link Updates

We used parameters based on a paper modelling Wuhan, that found that ~2 day infectious period predicted spread the best.

Adding cumulative statistics is in the pipeline; I or one of the devs might get around to it today.

How can we estimate how many people are C19 infected in an area?

There's currently a Foretold community attempting to answer this question here, using both general Guesstimate models and human judgement taking into account the nuances of each country. We've hired some superforecasters from Good Judgement who will start working on it in a few days.

(Tangential: as part of the Epidemic Forecasting project at FHI we are feeding this data into GLEAM, which is a global SEIR model running on high-performance computers, based on a database of millions of airline and commute connections. The model also tries to factor in in seasonality, air traffic reductions, and effectiveness of various containment measures.)

Crisis and opportunity during coronavirus

After working on this for a week, with a team building a forecasting dashboard based on global pandemic modelling software, I should add an additional reason for why this is a good opportunity:

Access to resources

Software developers are an incredibly scarce resource, and they'll charge massive salaries compared to many other jobs. But over the last week, I've received numerous offers from devs who are willing to volunteer 15+ hours a week.

Human attention is also scarce and it's hard to contact people. But when our team reached out to more senior connections or collaborators, we've had a 100% reply rate.

If you're working on important covid-19 projects, there's an incredible number of people willing to help out at prices far below market rate.

March Coronavirus Open Thread

If this was the case it ought to be visible indirectly through its effect on Ohio's healthcare system. I haven't heard of such reports (and I do follow the situation fairly closely), but I haven't looked for them either.

How do risks differ between locations? (re: Coronavirus)

I adapted Eli Tyre's model into a spreadsheet where you can calculate current number of cases in your country (by extrapolating from observed cases using some assumptions about doubling time and confirmation rate).

Model estimating the number of infected persons in the bay area

I made a new version of your spreadsheet where you can select your location (from the John Hopkins list), instead of just looking at the Bay area.

Model estimating the number of infected persons in the bay area

Whereas the local steps are fairly clear, after a quick read I found it moderately confusing what this model was doing at a high-level, and think some distillation could be helpful.

Coronavirus: Justified Practical Advice Thread
There is a 5% chance of getting critical form of COVID (source: WHO report)

That's a 40-page report and quickly ctrl-f:ing "5 %" didn't find anything to corroborate your claim, so it would be helpful if you could elaborate on that.

Blog Post Day (Unofficial)

What time zone will this be in?

There's a >20% chance I'll join. There's a much higher chance I'll show up to write some comments (which can also be an important thing).

I'm happy you're making this happen.

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