jan betley


Covid 3/18: An Expected Quantity of Blood Clots

I think EU countries might be calculating something like this: A) go on with AZ --> people keep talking about killer vaccines and how you should never trust the government and that no sane person should vaccinate and "blood clots today, what tomorrow?" B) halt AZ, then say "we checked carefully, everything's fine, we care, we don't want to kill anyone with our vaccine" and start again --> people will trust the vaccines just-a-little-more

And in the long term the general trust in the vaccines is much more important than few weeks delay.

I think you assume that scenario A is also better for the vaccine trust - maybe, I don't know, but I wouldn't be surprised if the European governments were seeing this the other way.

Also, obviously the best solution is "hey people, let's just stop talking about the goddamned blood clots", but The Virtue of Silence (https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2brqzQWfmNx5Agdrx/the-virtue-of-silence) is not popular enough : )

What do we *really* expect from a well-aligned AI?

A simple way of rating the scenarios above is to describe them as you have and ask humans what they think.

Do you think this is worth doing?

I thought that

  • either this was done a billion times and I just missed it
  • or this is neither important nor interesting to anyone but me
What do we *really* expect from a well-aligned AI?

What's wrong with the AI making life into a RPG (or multiple thereof)? People like stories and they like levelling up, collecting stuff, crafting, competing, etc. A story doesn't have to be pure fun (and those sort of stories are boring anyway).

E.g. Eliezer seems to think it's not the perfect future: "The presence or absence of an external puppet master can affect my valuation of an otherwise fixed outcome. Even if people wouldn't know they were being manipulated, it would matter to my judgment of how well humanity had done with its future. This is an important ethical issue, if you're dealing with agents powerful enough to helpfully tweak people's futures without their knowledge".

Also, you write:

If we want to have a shot at creating a truly enduring culture (of the kind that is needed to get us off this planet and out into the galaxy)

If we really want this, we have to restrain from spending our whole lives playing the best RPG possible.

Never mind AI, they're contradictory when executed by us. We aren't robots following a prioritised script and an AI wouldn't be either.

Consider human rules "you are allowed to lie to someone for the sake of their own utility" and "everyone should be able to take control of their own life". We know that lies about serious things never turn out good, so we lie only about things of little importance, and little lies like "yes grandma, that was very tasty" doesn't contradict the second rule. This looks different when you are an ultimate deceiver.

The Darwin Game

Your TitForTatBot
* never sets self.previous
* even if it was set, it would stop cooperating when opponent played 0

Also I agree with Zvi's comment, why 2.5 for free? This way one should really concentrate on maxing out in the early stage, is it intended?