jschulter

jschulter's Comments

Meetup : Columbus, Ohio; Self-Skepticism

Wait, so is this on Monday the 3rd or Tuesday the 4th?

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A question about Eliezer

The enjoyment of the activity factors into whether it is a good use of time.

A question about Eliezer

my probability that something like string theory is true would go way up after the detection of a Higgs boson

I'm not sure that this should be the case, as the Higgs is a Standard Model prediction and string theory is an attempt to extend that model. The accuracy of the former has little to say on whether the latter is sensible or accurate. For a concrete example, this is like allowing the accuracy of Newtonian Mechanics (via say some confirmed prediction about the existence of a planetary body based on anomalous orbital data) to influence your confidence in General Relativity before the latter had predicted Mercury's precession or the Michelson-Morley experiment had been done.

EDIT: Unless of course you were initially under the impression that there were flaws in the basic theory which would make the extension fall apart, which I just realized may have been the case for you regarding the Standard Model.

SotW: Check Consequentialism

But it is near-consequentialist: "I'm a hard-working person and hard-working people wouldn't just give up" --> "the act of giving up will make me feel less like a hard-working person and therefore make me less likely to work hard in the future"

SotW: Be Specific

That particular element seems like it would incentivize campers to spend the period hyper-aware of their own and others' specificity, which seems counterproductive to me. The goal is an increase in the specificity of statements made casually, which could be entirely unrelated. Extending the period to say, a week, might work to prevent this- at that point it would be a long term incentive rather than a prize.

SotW: Be Specific

This activity seems like it would tie in well with a unit on hypothesis and experiment generation as well- it reminds me of the 2-4-6 test. Perhaps have two different scoring rules: when trying to teach specificity, give points for getting your partner to guess; when teaching how to find the right hypotheses and tests, give points for guessing correctly.

Meetup : Phoenix, AZ Meetup on TDT

I unfortunately wont be able to make it up for this one, despite my strong interest in the subject. Would someone be willing to host me via Skype though?

Meetup : Phoenix, AZ Meetup on TDT

This sounds very interesting. Do you have anybody who's particularly experienced with TDT or other decision theories committed to come? And which business will it be at, as that appears to be a mall of some sort?

Also, is anyone from down here in Tucson looking for a ride up, or already has one with an extra seat?

Rationalist Judo, or Using the Availability Heuristic to Win

Okay, thanks for clarifying the question. I've essentially already stated all the "evidence" I'm using for the claim, it's almost entirely anecdotal, and there's certainly no actual studies that I've used to support this particular bullet point. So, there is a good chance I may have stated things in a way which seems overconfident, and I may in fact be overconfident regarding this particular claim, especially considering that I've not tested alternate explanations for the efficacy I've had. I'd be more than willing to have a detailed discussion regarding both of our experiences/intuitions with the method, but I feel as though this probably isn't the place(I've already messaged you), though I'd be happy to update the wording of the article afterwards if it's necessary.

Rationalist Judo, or Using the Availability Heuristic to Win

The statement about strong visualization (essentially simulating experiences as closely as possible) is taken from the video and personal (and anecdotal) experience with the method. The reinforcement from actual completion refers to how once you've completed the task you were motivating yourself to do, you should get the feeling of reward you were imagining to motivate yourself. Actually experiencing the reward makes it easier to simulate if you need to become motivated again later. Additionally the mental connection you'll make between completing the task and the reward makes it less likely that you'll need to repeat the exercise for that task, unless it has an extremely high activation cost: the next time you go to do the task, one of the first things that comes to mind will likely be the reward you felt last time(s) you performed it.

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