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> I am somewhat hesitant to share simple intuition pumps about important topics, in case those intuition pumps are misleading.
This sounds wrong to me. Do you expect considering such things freely to be misleading on net? I expect some intuition pumps to be misleading, but for considering all of th...(read more)
Thanks for your thoughts!
I don't quite follow you on the intelligence explosion issue. For instance, why does a strong argument against the intelligence explosion hypothesis need to show that a feedback loop is unlikely? Couldn't we believe that it is likely, but not likely to be very rapid for a ...(read more)
My example for high status/small was an esteemed teacher unexpectedly dropping in to see to see their student perform, and entering silently and at the last minute, then standing quietly at the back of the room by the door.
I also think they are probably wrong, but this kind of argument is a substantial part of why. So I want to see if they can be rescued from it, since that would affect their probability of being right from my perspective.
Do you think there are more compelling arguments that they are wrong, such that...(read more)
>Katja: do people infer that taste and wealth go together?
My weak guess is yes, but not sure.
I don't follow why you think this dynamic exists because wealth and taste are
correlated. I think the dynamic I am describing is independent of that, and
caused by it being very hard to find a signal of taste say that you cannot buy
with other resources at least somewhat. If in fact taste was antico...(read more)
Scott's understanding of the survey is correct. They were asked about four
occupations (with three probability-by-year, or year-reaching-probability
numbers for each), then for an occupation that they thought would be fully
automated especially late, and the timing of that, then all occupations. (In...(read more)
"It's not enough to know about the Way and how to walk it; you need gnosis of
walking."
Could I have a less metaphorical example of what people need gnosis of for
rationality? I'm imagining you are thinking of e.g. what it is like to carry out
changing your mind in a real situation, or what it look...(read more)
So a gnostically rational person with low epistemic rationality cannot figure things out by reasoning, yet experiences being rational nonetheless? Could you say more about what you mean by 'rational' here? Is it something like frequently having good judgment?
I wasn't thinking of one of them as the opponent really, but it is inspired by
an amalgam of all the casual conversation about signaling I have ever had. For
some reason I feel like there is sort of a canonical platonic conversation about
signaling, and all of the real conversations are short extrac...(read more)
> I am somewhat hesitant to share simple intuition pumps about important topics, in case those intuition pumps are misleading.
This sounds wrong to me. Do you expect considering such things freely to be misleading on net? I expect some intuition pumps to be misleading, but for considering all of th...(read more)
Thanks for your thoughts!
I don't quite follow you on the intelligence explosion issue. For instance, why does a strong argument against the intelligence explosion hypothesis need to show that a feedback loop is unlikely? Couldn't we believe that it is likely, but not likely to be very rapid for a ...(read more)
My example for high status/small was an esteemed teacher unexpectedly dropping in to see to see their student perform, and entering silently and at the last minute, then standing quietly at the back of the room by the door.
I also think they are probably wrong, but this kind of argument is a substantial part of why. So I want to see if they can be rescued from it, since that would affect their probability of being right from my perspective. Do you think there are more compelling arguments that they are wrong, such that...(read more)
>Katja: do people infer that taste and wealth go together?
My weak guess is yes, but not sure.
I don't follow why you think this dynamic exists because wealth and taste are correlated. I think the dynamic I am describing is independent of that, and caused by it being very hard to find a signal of taste say that you cannot buy with other resources at least somewhat. If in fact taste was antico...(read more)
Scott's understanding of the survey is correct. They were asked about four occupations (with three probability-by-year, or year-reaching-probability numbers for each), then for an occupation that they thought would be fully automated especially late, and the timing of that, then all occupations. (In...(read more)
"It's not enough to know about the Way and how to walk it; you need gnosis of walking."
Could I have a less metaphorical example of what people need gnosis of for rationality? I'm imagining you are thinking of e.g. what it is like to carry out changing your mind in a real situation, or what it look...(read more)
So a gnostically rational person with low epistemic rationality cannot figure things out by reasoning, yet experiences being rational nonetheless? Could you say more about what you mean by 'rational' here? Is it something like frequently having good judgment?
I wasn't thinking of one of them as the opponent really, but it is inspired by an amalgam of all the casual conversation about signaling I have ever had. For some reason I feel like there is sort of a canonical platonic conversation about signaling, and all of the real conversations are short extrac...(read more)