Hello! I work at Lightcone and like LessWrong :-)
Curated. I am excited about many more distillations and expositions of relevant math on the Alignment Forum. There are a lot of things I like about this post as a distillation:
I do think the pictures became less helpful to me towards the end, and I thus have worse intuitions about the causal inference part. I'm also not sure about the emphasis of this post on causal rather than temporal inference. But I still love the post overall.
What do you mean by "its outputs are the same as its conclusions"? If I had to guess I would translate it as "PA proves the same things as are true in every model of PA". Is that right?
samples fully weighted from the unconditional generative model are boring natural texture patterns
Different results here: https://twitter.com/summerstay1/status/1579759146236510209
Why better than in-person? Because of commute times, because of people being in spaces adapted to their own preferences, something else?
OP writes that there have been no big cooperation wins, so a fortiori, there have been no big cooperation wins with the countries you mention.
I think the "changed my mind" Delta should be have varied line widths, like https://thenounproject.com/icon/delta-43529/ (reads too much like "triangle" to me at the moment).