Kenny

Kenny's Comments

Choosing the Zero Point

This is powerful. It's such simple (and blatant) 'framing' ... and yet it really does make me feel better about considering whether the world is (much) worse than I now believe.

Thanks!

How About a Remote Variolation Study?

You are pointing out real costs to this idea and I don't disagree that what you describe are real risks.

But it seems extremely unlikely – effectively impossible – that anything like this would ever be approved by an "ethics board" so seeking approval would be a waste of resources.

Someone, or some group of people, being prosecuted or risking being prosecuted would potentially be a heroic sacrifice – not a flagrant mistake.

How About a Remote Variolation Study?

That's a good idea, but it doesn't seem like tests will be widespread anytime soon, and maybe not available to individuals for even longer (or ever).

But the video idea is good. And maybe it could be used for participants to rehearse both the testing and variolation protocols before performing them for real.

How About a Remote Variolation Study?

The reason not to do something like this is because it wouldn't work, not because it's not approved by an official "ethics board".

Informing volunteers would be relatively easy and I definitely don't think the post author was proposing not informing participants of the risks.

I do agree that this should be its own project, separate from this site.

I also don't think this would likely produce good-enough data. I'm not confident that enough participants could be found, and verified, as having followed any protocol that could be designed (e.g. provide sufficient evidence of them being infected and at a low dose).

The Peter Attia Drive podcast episode #102: Michael Osterholm, Ph.D.: COVID-19—Lessons learned, challenges ahead, and reasons for optimism and concern

Another highlight around 32:40:

  • Some hospitals in Italy allowed infected workers to continue working, and without masks, if "they weren't that sick".
The Peter Attia Drive podcast episode #102: Michael Osterholm, Ph.D.: COVID-19—Lessons learned, challenges ahead, and reasons for optimism and concern

Another highlight around 29:05:

  • Both China and the Lombardy region in Italy are where many generic antibiotics (used in the U.S.) are made.
The Peter Attia Drive podcast episode #102: Michael Osterholm, Ph.D.: COVID-19—Lessons learned, challenges ahead, and reasons for optimism and concern

Another highlight around 23:20:

  • NYC reported [on March 30th or 31st] that 900 police officers are out with COVID-19, over 13% of the police force. The daily NYC COVID-19 mortality rate is 50% higher than the recent past base mortality rate (for all causes).
The Peter Attia Drive podcast episode #102: Michael Osterholm, Ph.D.: COVID-19—Lessons learned, challenges ahead, and reasons for optimism and concern

Another highlight, around 20 minutes:

  • Because the fatality rate seems to significantly depend on co-morbidities and maybe age itself too, different countries and different regions should be expected to have very different hospitalization and fatality rates. [I'm not sure that's accounted-for widely yet.]
The Peter Attia Drive podcast episode #102: Michael Osterholm, Ph.D.: COVID-19—Lessons learned, challenges ahead, and reasons for optimism and concern

I'm listening to it now myself but I thought his episode with Joe Rogan was good enough to recommend this first.

An early highlight:

  • 11:30 – Osterholm states that "there probably is durable immunity, at least for the short-term" and mentions a recent study on macaque monkeys that demonstrated short-term immunity – one (1) month (or one month after recovery?) – for monkeys that recovered from COVID-19 after deliberate infection by the researchers. None showed symptoms after being "re-challenged". The researchers reported that (all of?) the monkeys were IgM negative, PCR negative, and that "they did cultures too". Immunity might not last years but some immunity is (weak) evidence of longer-term immunity generally.
Mask wearing: do the opposite of what the CDC/WHO has been saying?

Maybe people should, after removing a mask, wash their hands, then their faces (with a cloth too perhaps), and then their hands again?

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