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TL;DR: Instead of labouriously computing , we can mentally calculate using the alpha-max plus beta-min algorithm, by estimating and this will be very close to the actual . This is useful for adding up sources of variance, or figuring out radiuses, or other such things. Background The mathematical relationship is...

Engineering Enigmas is simplified Tarot reading for working engineers. Any time you feel stuck and need help in finding a way forward, open that web page and follow the advice given. You may have to be creative in how you interpret the advice in order for it to apply to...

I was reading the METR article on how LLM code passes test much more often than it is of mergeable quality. They look at the performance of LLMs doing programming when the success criterion is “passes all tests” and compare it to when the success criterion is “would get approved...

The recent post on whether common diseases build immunity reminded me of the data collection I made when my children were young. It supports the idea that immunity does not build, but very weakly because n=2 and limited period of data collection. Here's a reproduction of the original article with...

I am convinced there exists something we can call statistical literacy. Unfortunately, I don’t yet know exactly what it is, so it is hard to write about. One thing is clear: it is not about knowledge of statistical tools and techniques. Most of the statistically literate people I meet don’t...

Root cause analysis is a crap technique for learning from failure. To see why, we need to know some fundamentals first. These are good to know for anyone designing anything they want to be reliable. A hazard is an accident waiting to happen In safety-critical systems, we distinguish between accidents...

TL;DR: If you want to know whether getting insurance is worth it, use the Kelly Insurance Calculator. If you want to know why or how, read on. Note to LW readers: this is almost the entire article, except some additional maths that I couldn't figure out how to get right...