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LawrenceC

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LawrenceC

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I do AI Alignment research. Currently at METR, but previously at: Redwood Research, UC Berkeley, Good Judgment Project.

I'm also a part-time fund manager for the LTFF.

Obligatory research billboard website: https://chanlawrence.me/

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LawrenceC

I do AI Alignment research. Currently at METR, but previously at: Redwood Research, UC Berkeley, Good Judgment Project.

I'm also a part-time fund manager for the LTFF.

Obligatory research billboard website: https://chanlawrence.me/

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Beware General Claims about “Generalizable Reasoning Capabilities” (of Modern AI Systems)

1. Late last week, researchers at Apple released a paper provocatively titled “The Illusion of Thinking: Understanding the Strengths and Limitations of Reasoning Models via the Lens of Problem Complexity”, which “challenge[s] prevailing assumptions about [language model] capabilities and suggest that current approaches may be encountering fundamental barriers to generalizable reasoning”. Normally I refrain from publicly commenting on newly released papers. But then I saw the following tweet from Gary Marcus: I have always wanted to engage thoughtfully with Gary Marcus. In a past life (as a psychology undergrad), I read both his work on infant language acquisition and his 2001 book The Algebraic Mind; I found both insightful and interesting. From reading his Twitter, Gary Marcus is thoughtful and willing to call it like he sees it. If he's right about language models hitting fundamental barriers, it's worth understanding why; if not, it's worth explaining where his analysis went wrong. As a result, instead of writing a quick-off-the-cuff response in a few 280 character tweets, I read the paper and Gary Marcus’s substack post, reproduced some of the paper’s results, and then wrote this 4000 word post. Ironically, given that it's currently June 11th (two days after my last tweet was posted) my final tweet provides two examples of the planning fallacy. 2. I don’t want to bury the lede here. While I find some of the observations interesting, I was quite disappointed by the paper given the amount of hype around it. The paper seems to reflect generally sloppy work and the authors overclaim what their results show (albeit not more so than the average ML conference submission). The paper fails to back up the authors’ claim that language models cannot “reason” due to “fundamental limitations”, or even (if you permit some snark) their claim that they performed “detailed analysis of reasoning traces”. By now, others have highlighted many of the issues with the paper: see

297Jun 11, 2025

Natural Abstractions: Key Claims, Theorems, and Critiques

248Mar 16, 2023

What I would do if I wasn’t at ARC Evals

Causal Scrubbing: a method for rigorously testing interpretability hypotheses [Redwood Research]

“Features” aren’t always the true computational primitives of a model, but that might be fine anyways

Or, partly against discussion about generic “features” in mechanistic interpretability Probably the most debated core concept in mechanistic interpretability is that of the “feature”: common questions include “are there non-linear features, and does this mean that the linear representation hypothesis is false?”, “do SAEs recover a canonical set of features,...

Beware General Claims about “Generalizable Reasoning Capabilities” (of Modern AI Systems)

1. Late last week, researchers at Apple released a paper provocatively titled “The Illusion of Thinking: Understanding the Strengths and Limitations of Reasoning Models via the Lens of Problem Complexity”, which “challenge[s] prevailing assumptions about [language model] capabilities and suggest that current approaches may be encountering fundamental barriers to generalizable...

Jun 11, 2025•297

Anthropic releases Claude 3.7 Sonnet with extended thinking mode

See also: the research post detailing Claude's extended reasoning abilities and the Claude 3.7 System Card. About 1.5 hours ago, Anthropic released Claude 3.7 Sonnet, a hybrid reasoning model that interpolates between a normal LM and long chains of thought: > Today, we’re announcing Claude 3.7 Sonnet1, our most intelligent...

Feb 24, 2025•88

Debate: Is it ethical to work at AI capabilities companies?

Epistemic status: Soldier mindset. These are not (necessarily) our actual positions, these are positions we were randomly assigned, and for which we searched for the strongest arguments we could find, over the course of ~1 hr 45 mins. Sides: Ben was assigned to argue that it's ethical to work for...

Aug 14, 2024•39

What progress have we made on automated auditing?

One use case for model internals work is to perform automated auditing of models: https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/cQwT8asti3kyA62zc/automating-auditing-an-ambitious-concrete-technical-research That is, given a specification of intended behavior, the attacker produces a model that doesn't satisfy the spec, and the auditor needs to determine how the model doesn't satisfy the spec. This is closely related...

Jul 6, 2024•38

Compact Proofs of Model Performance via Mechanistic Interpretability

We recently released a paper on using mechanistic interpretability to generate compact formal guarantees on model performance. In this companion blog post to our paper, we'll summarize the paper and flesh out some of the motivation and inspiration behind our work. Paper abstract > In this work, we propose using...

Jun 24, 2024•104

Mechanistic Interpretability Workshop Happening at ICML 2024!

Announcing the first academic Mechanistic Interpretability workshop, held at ICML 2024! I think this is an exciting development that's a lagging indicator of mech interp gaining legitimacy as an academic field, and a good chance for field building and sharing recent progress! We'd love to get papers submitted if any...

May 3, 2024•48

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