well spotted
i mean i think that its' definitely an update (anything short of 95% i think would have been quite surprising to me)
not to be 'i trust my priors more than your data', but i have to say that i find the AGI thing quite implausible; my impression is that most AI researchers (way more than 60%), even ones working in like something very non-deep learning adjacent, have heard of the term AGI, but many of them are/were quite dismissive of it as an idea or associate it strongly (not entirely unfairly) with hype /bullshit, hence maybe walking away from you when you ask them about it.
e.g deepmind and openAI have been massive producers of neurips papers for years now (at least since I started a phd in 2016), and both organisations explictly talked about AGI fairly often for years.
maybe neurips has way more random attendees now (i didn't go this year), but I still find this kind of hard to believe; I think I've read about AGI in the financial times now.
your example agreement with a friend is obviously a derivative, which is just a contract whose value depends on the value of an underlying asset (google stock in this case). If it's not a formal derivative contract you might be less likely to get in trouble for it compared to doing it on robinhood or whatever (not legal advice!) but it doesn't seem like a very good idea.
like at many public companies, google has anti-insider trading policies that prohibit employees from trading in options and other derivatives on the company stock, or shorting it.
yeah that makes sense I think
with later small networks taking the outputs of earlier small networks as their inputs.
what's the distinction between two small networks connected in series with the first taking the output of the previous one as input and one big network? what defines the boundaries of the networks here?
I kind of agree that Dennett is right about this, but I think it's important to notice that the idea he's attacking - that all representation is explicit representation - is an old and popular one in philosophy of mind that was, at one point, seen as natural and inevitable by many people working in the field, and one which I think still seems somewhat natural and obvious to many people who maybe haven't thought about the counterarguments much (e.g I think you can see echos of this view in a post like this one, or the idea that there will be some 'intelligence algorithm' which will be a relatively short python program). The idea that a thought is always or mostly something like a sentence in 'mentalese' is, I think, still an attractive one to many people of a logical sort of bent, as is the idea that formalised reasoning captures the 'core' of cognition.
I guess you are thinking about holes with the p-type semiconductor?
I don't think I agree (perhaps obviously) that it's better to think about the issues in the post in terms of physics analogies than in terms of the philosophy of mind and language. If you are thinking about how a mental representation represents some linguistic concept, then Dennett and Wittgenstein (and others!) are addressing the same problem as you! in a way that virtual particles are really not
re. the article saying it's hard to observe; I think the short nails are pretty hard to spot (many people keep their nails short) but the long fingerstyle nails are quite unusual looking, though also not that common.