If the alternative uncertainty-resolution method is a negotiated settlement, the act of starting negotiations potentially changes the balance of force by the end of the negotiation, since opposing power will learn that you are considering a war and have time to prepare itself. Many modern military conflicts have started with a surprise attack intended to knock out or demoralize the enemy before they could build up their full strength. Once the attack begins, the fact that the defender resists might indicate that you were overconfident, but it could also be...
Hi all--I have been a reader of LW and other rationalist writing for the last 15 years. Professionally, I am an ecologist of a mathematical bent, with wide interests. I have created an account mostly to be able to auto-filter the LW frontpage to my liking, but I will occasionally comment and maybe post as the spirit moves me.