amarai — LessWrong

How much does the risk of dying from nuclear war differ within and between countries?

It seems that being in a major city such as London or New York makes it much more likely that one dies in case of nuclear war than in the countryside or in a smaller town. Also, some people seem to think that certain countries are much safer from nuclear...

Oct 11, 20224

In forecasting, how do accuracy, calibration and reliability relate to each other?

Forecasters vary on at least three dimensions: 1. accuracy- as measured in (e.g.) average brier score over time (brier score is a measure of error where if you think (say) p is 0.7 likely and p turns out to be true, then your brier score on this forecast is (1...

Sep 11, 20223

A bayesian updating on expert opinions

I am trying to model a bayesian agent who updates their credence in some proposition p based on a set of experts on p, who just respond in a binary way to p (i.e. "belief"/"disbelief"). Do you know of attempts (inside or outside academic literature) to model something similar? My...

Aug 30, 20221

How could the universe be infinitely large?

I ask this question in the context of thinking about infinite ethics. It seems to me that I would need to give up at least one of three beliefs about the universe in order to coherently think that it is infinitely large. They are: (i) at some past point in...

Jul 13, 20220

Wisdom of the crowds?

According to an aggregate of forecasts on metaculus, the probability of bitcoin going above 100k within the next 5 years is 60%. Under which conditions is it rational to have my probability for some event match the (i) median of a large group of estimates (e.g. from metaculus) or (ii)...

Sep 29, 20212