MikkW

Comments

A New Center? [Politics] [Wishful Thinking]

Germany does have a winner-take-all mechanism for the executive branch; the parliament is appointed proportionately, but the chancellor is the singular head of government, and is appointed by the Bundestag in a way that, in extreme cases where consensus cannot be reached, regresses to plurality voting (FPTP).

I'm not familiar with the German situation, but in Denmark (whose system served as a model for the German system), while there are multiple parties, there is still a two-bloc system, where each party either aligns with the red bloc (supporting the Social Democrats / Socialdemokraterne) or the blue bloc (led by the Winstar party / Venstre), with the prime minister always coming from one of the two major parties. I presume the situation in Germany isn't so different, and that this is what Lucas2000 is referring to by "something similar to a two-party system".

MikkW's Shortform

In response to my earlier post about Myers-Briggs (where I suggested a more detailed notation for more nuanced communication about personality types), it was pointed out that there is some correlation between the four traits being measured, and this makes the system communicate less information on average than it otherwise would (The traditional notation would communicate 4 bits, my version would communicate ~9.2 if there was no correlation).

I do object to the characterization that it all measures "the same thing", since none of the traits perfectly predicts the others, and all 16 of the traditional configurations have people they describe (though some are more common than others); but I do think it makes sense to try to disentangle things - if the I / E scale is correlated with the J / P scale, we can subtract some amount of J points for more introverted people, and add J points for the extroverts, so that an introvert needs to be more "judgmental" to be considered "J" than an equally judgmental extrovert, with the goal being that 50% of extroverts will be J, 50% P, and have a similar 50-50 split for introverts.

By adjusting for these correlations across all pairs, we can more finely detect and communicate the underlying traits that cause "Judgement" and "Perception" that aren't just a result of a person being more extroverted (a disposition that rewards those who are best able to use their intuition) or introverted (which often leads to pursuits that require careful thinking distanced from our whims).

MikkW's Shortform

Random thought: if you have a big enough compost pile, would it spontaneously break into flames due to the heat generated by the bioprocesses that occur therein? If so, at what size would it burst into flames? Surely it could happen before it reached the size of the sun, even ignoring gravitational effects.

(Just pondering out loud, not really asking unless someone really wants to answer)

MikkW's Shortform

Last month, I wrote a post here titled "Even Inflationary Currencies Should Have Fixed Total Supply", which wasn't well-received. One problem was that the point I argued for wasn't exactly the same as what the title stated: I supported both currencies with fixed total supply, and currencies that instead choose to scale supply proportional to the amount of value in the currency's ecosystem, and many people got confused and put off by the disparity between the title and my actual thesis; indeed, one of the most common critiques in the comments was a reiteration of a point I had already made in the original post.

Zvi helpfully pointed out another effect that nominal inflation has that serves as part of the reason inflation is implemented the way it is, that I wasn't previously aware of, namely that nominal inflation induces people to accept worsening prices they psychologically would otherwise resist. While I feel intentionally invoking this effect flirts with the boundary of dishonesty, I do recognize the power and practical benefits of this effect.

All that said, I do stand by the core of my original thesis: nominal inflation is a source of much confusion for normal people, and makes the information provided by price signals less easily legible over long spans of time, which is problematic. Even if the day-to-day currency continues to nominally inflate like things are now, it would be stupid not to coordinate around a standard stable unit of value (like [Year XXXX] Dollars, except without having to explicitly name a specific year as the basis of reference; and maybe don't call it dollars, to make it clear that the unit isn't fluidly under the control of some organization)

MikkW's Shortform

I learned to type in Dvorak nearly a decade ago, and any time I have typed on a device that supports it, I have used it since then. I don't know if it actually is any better than QWERTY, but I do notice that I enjoy the way it feels to type in Dvorak; the rhythm and shape of the dance my fingers make is noticeably different from when I type on QWERTY.

Even if Dvorak itself turns out not to be better in some way (fx. speed, avoiding injury, facilitation of mental processes) than QWERTY, it is incredibly unlikely that there does not exist some configuration of keys that is provably superior to QWERTY.

Also, hot take: Colemak is the coward's Dvorak.

Final Version Perfected: An Underused Execution Algorithm

I modified this slightly lately: sometimes, there's one task (task A) that I have a strong desire to do on one dimension, but I have a strong desire on another dimension to do not that. In this case, I can have a hard time making good comparisons- once I get to task A, I highlight it, then every comparison afterwards becomes very hard- in one way I would like to do task A, but in another way, I'd rather do the other thing. Since I do a similar comparison multiple times, comparing task A to several other tasks that have a cloudy preference, this puts me at high risk (double jeopardy) of accidentally marking another task at some point as higher-priority, even though task A might have been the better choice.

To avoid this, and to reduce the number of difficult comparisons, once I identify a task that feels high-priority along some dimension, I will use a new marking to highlight task A, then restart the process starting with the next two items. I will then ignore the extra-marked task (task A) until I've gotten all the way through the list, then compare the final result of the second half against task A, meaning I only have to make the hard comparison once, both saving mental effort, and reducing the chance of accidentally skipping the most important task.

I'm from a parallel Earth with much higher coordination: AMA

ahh, basic coordinacy to go with their literacy and numeracy. I see.

I like this word. We need more coordinate people, and more widespread coordinacy training

Examples of Acausal Trade with an Alien Universe?

If they have something to trade with those like me, they might deliberately write an AI to control their hypercomputer, in order to make it easy for those like me to prove things.

But this takes us back to where we started. What could we offer them that they can't make themselves, and what can they offer us that we can't do ourselves?

Toward A Bayesian Theory Of Willpower

So this example still seems to support Scott's point of "if they had just listened to their reinforcement/instinctual processes instead of their intellectual/logical ones, they could have avoided that problem".

But my point is that the process that led to them becoming monks was an instinctual process, not an intellectual one, and the "problem" isn't actually one from the point of view of the genes.

Load More