Milton

If we're uncertain about the probability of an event x occurring (in virtue of the fact that x has occurred none or just a few times), how should we update our probability of x occurring in the future, in the face of x not occurring over a period of time?...

Alice, Bob, Chris, Dana and Erica have set out to guess the number of candies in a glas jar just by looking at it. How do I mathematically show that the average guess will come closer to the real number if they guess independently, i.e without Bob hearing Alice's guess,...