He wasn't certain what he expected to find, which, in his experience, was generally a good enough reason to investigate something.

Harry Potter and the Confirmed Critical, Chapter 6

I've got to start listening to those quiet, nagging doubts.


BTW, the post says that spoilers from the original canon don't need to be in rot13.

Their hearts stop beating, and they stop needing to breathe during the turning process.

I plan to keep doing reruns through "Final Words", which will be posted two days from now. After the reruns are done, I have no particular plans to keep going. I had planned to create a post to prompt discussion as to future plans, but I don't plan to personally do another rerun.

To try to be happy is to try to build a machine with no other specification than that it shall run noiselessly. -Robert Oppenheimer, 1929

I don't think EY actually suggests that people are doing those calculations. He's saying that we're just executing an adaptation that functioned well in groups of a hundred or so, but don't work nearly as well anymore.

The trouble is that there is nothing in epistemic rationality that corresponds to "motivations" or "goals" or anything like that. Epistemic rationality can tell you that pushing a button will lead to puppies not being tortured, and not pushing it will lead to puppies being tortured, but unless you have an additional system that incorporates desires for puppies to not be tortured, as well as a system for achieving those desires, that's all you can do with epistemic rationality.

I think you're confusing Pascal's Wager with Pascal's Mugging. The problem with Pascal's Mugging is that the payoffs are really high. The problem with Pascal's Wager is that it fails to consider any hypotheses other than "there is the christian god" and "there is no god".

I'm not really sure that counts as faith. Faith usually implies something like "believing something without concern for evidence". And in fact, the evidence I have fairly strongly indicates is that when I step into an airplane, I'm not going to die.

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