Nikola Jurkovic

Back in the day, I was a very active AI safety group organizer. I commonly notice people making the same mistakes across many clubs. I have written down a list of some of these mistakes hoping people will avoid them in the future: * Reading groups often require that people...

I ran a small single-blind ZBiotics RCT at a party I hosted recently. I prepared 30 cups, 21 of which contained a placebo and 9 of which contained a shot of ZBiotics Pre-Alcohol. People took these as they entered the party. The day after, 28[1] of them filled out a...

When I started my freshman year, my median estimate for AGI was 20 years. In my senior year it was down to 3 years (although it’s gone back up to 5 years since then). My expectations of the future made my college experience somewhat unusual and I will share some...

AI 2027, Situational Awareness, and basically every scenario that tries to seriously wrestle with AGI, assume that the US and China are basically the only countries that matter in shaping the future of humanity. I think this assumption is mostly valid. But, if other countries wake up to AGI, how...

A few people have made the prediction that there’s inherent superexponentiality in time horizons. One way to define inherently superexponential time horizons is: > Even without substantial AI R&D automation, there is some reason to expect time horizons to grow faster than exponentially at some level of capabilities. There are...

How large of a breakthrough is necessary for dangerous AI? In order to cause a catastrophe, an AI system would need to be very competent at agentic tasks[1]. The best metric of general agentic capabilities is METR’s time horizon. The time horizon measures the length of well-specified software tasks AI...

Recently, I looked at the one pair of winter boots I own, and I thought “I will probably never buy winter boots again.” The world as we know it probably won’t last more than a decade, and I live in a pretty warm area. I. AGI is likely in the...