I compared the Manifold forecasts with the community prediction on Metaculus and calculated a time-averaged Brier Score to score forecasts over time.

The so-called "nonsense" community prediction is still more accurate on average than Manifold for the same questions.

https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/15359/predictive-performance-on-metaculus-vs-manifold-markets/

Artemis II has already been delayed to 2025, as of yesterday.

I agree about it having to fit on a single chip, but surely the neural net on-board would only have a relatively negligible impact on range compared to how much the electric motor consumes in motion?

I'd provide a counterexample analogy: speedruns.

Many high-level speedruns (and especially TAS runs) often look like some combination of completely stupid/insane/incomprehensible to casual players. Nevertheless, they work for the task they set out to do far more effectively than trying to beat the game quickly with "casual strats" would get you.

I think seeing a sufficiently smart AI doing stuff in the real world would converge to looking a lot like that from our POV.

Any particular reason you've linked all those tweets, but blocked general access to them? I'd probably be interested in reading some of those threads just going by the titles.

Hey, I'm an interested Lithuanian :)

Only saw your comment just now 2 months later, but I've sent you a DM.

Is there any GDP-like measure that does do a better job of capturing growth from major tech breakthroughs?

Advice for Smart People with Autism

Even if you never write this one (or any of the other ideas with "autis" in the title), I'd love a 1-3 sentence summary of your suggestions.