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Gato as the Dawn of Early AGI

How long would you expect to be able to enjoy your newfound fortune in Google stock before death? I could maybe see an AGI starting to disassemble the planet before the stock even has a chance to rise all that much...

Why pessimism sounds smart

In the limit, the pessimists will eventually be correct. There's only so many technologies and improvements that can be made under the laws of physics (e.g. Landauer's limit), and once we hit those real limits, that'll be as good as it gets.

Of course, the catch that a lot of people might not realize is that a) we're at least centuries away from hitting said limits, even with aligned superintelligence, and b) those limits are far, far better than what we have and live with today.

Maybe not a normal blog post per se, but AI Impacts did a survey back in 2016 about when AIs would reach certain capabilities. Some narrow tasks have already passed their 10 or 50% median estimate dates and are arguably doable with 2022 technology.

Dating profiles from first principles: heterosexual male profile design

They are: aesthetics, mental health, social capital, wealth, physical attractiveness, and niceness.

So if I'm below average on probably all of these (and extremely below average on at least mental health and social capital), is the right thing to do just to give up on dating for the foreseeable future?

What 2026 looks like

I wonder how plausible it would be to develop some kind of tool that offers alterations to any message you leave online into something that has essentially the same meaning and content, but no longer possesses your "digital fingerprint".

Change the wording into something you're less likely to use, add or remove subtle details like, say, a double space after a period, randomized posting times, etc.

What will 2040 probably look like assuming no singularity?

Metaculus predicts with ~75% probability that UBI will be implemented in at least one EU country.

AMA: Paul Christiano, alignment researcher

Are there any good examples of useful or interesting sub-problems in AI Alignment that can actually be considered "solved"?