Correlation looks good all the way except for the three massive outliers at the top of the rankings.
"How to get people to take ideas seriously without serious risk they will go insane along the way" is a very important problem. In retrospect, CFAR should have had this as an explicit priority from the start.
Relatedly, there's an awkward cursor line in the top-right box for optimism bias.
I believe the corporations in Moral Mazes were mostly in the manufacturing sector. (Your second point applies, though, as a decent explanation for why American manufacturing has been increasingly outcompeted in the last few decades.)
Okay, so another necessary condition for being downstream from an optimizer is being causally downstream. I'm sure there are other conditions, but the claim still feels like an important addition to the conversation.
I'm still skeptical of Circling, but this is exactly the sort of post I want to encourage in general: trying to explain something many readers are skeptical of, while staying within this site's epistemic standards and going only one inferential step out.
Either (1) or (2) (and some other possibilities) would satisfy my prediction. My prediction is just that, however we do things in 2029, it won't be by handing each merchant the keys to our entire credit account.
Dammit, dammit, dammit, I meant to condition these all on no human extinction and no superintelligence. Commenting rather than editing because I forget if the time of an edit is visible, and I want it to be clear I didn't update this based on information from the 2020s.
Okay then, how about higher education as a fraction of GDP?
As with last decade, I'm most confident about boring things, though less optimistic than I'd like to be.
Fewer than 1 billion people (combatants + civilians) will die in wars in the 2020s: 95%
The United States of America will still exist under its current Constitution (with or without new Amendments) and with all of its current states (with or without new states) as of 1/1/30: 93%
Fewer than 10 million people (combatants + civilians) will die in wars in the 2020s: 85%
The median rent per unit in the United States will increase faster than inflation in the 2020s: 80%
The National Popular Vote Interstate Compact will not go into force by 1/1/30: 75%
Human-driven cars will still be street-legal in all major US cities as of 1/1/30: 75%
As of 1/1/30, customers will not make purchases by giving each merchant full access to a non-transaction-specific numeric string (i.e. credit cards as they are today): 70%
Conditional on Pew Research Center releasing a survey on the topic after 1/1/28, their most recent survey by 1/1/30 will show that 60% or fewer of American adults identify as Christian: 70%
Conditional on Pew Research Center releasing a survey on the topic after 1/1/28, their most recent survey by 1/1/30 will show that 33% or more of American adults identify as religiously unaffiliated: 70%
More than half of American adults will use a Facebook product at least once per day in 2029: 60%
Real-time 24-hour news networks will still exist as of 1/1/30, and will average more than 1 million average daily viewers (in the USA) in 2029: 50%
The largest not-currently-existing US tech company (by market cap as of 1/1/30) will not have its primary HQ in the Bay Area: 35%
A song generated entirely by an AI will make one of the Billboard charts: 25%
California will put a new state constitution to a statewide vote: 10%