> Relying purely on local validity won't get you very far in playing chess
The equivalent of local validity is just mechanically checking "okay, if I make this move, then they can make that move" for a bunch of cases. Which, first, is a major developmental milestone for kids learning chess. So we o...(read more)
Broken link on the text "real killing of birds to reduce pests in China has never been tried".
Much of this material is covered very similarly in [Melting Asphalt](https://www.meltingasphalt.com/common-knowledge/), especially the posts [Ads Don't Work That Way](http://www.meltingasphalt.com/ads-dont-work-that-way/) and [Doesn't Matter, Warm Fuzzies](http://www.meltingasphalt.com/doesnt-matter...(read more)
If you do future surveys of this sort, I'd like you to ask people for their probabilities rather than just their best guesses. If people are uncertain but decently calibrated, I'd argue there's not much of a problem; if people are confidently wrong, I'd argue there's a real problem.
This comment got linked a decade later, and so I thought it's worth stating my own thoughts on the question:
We can consider a reference class of CEV-seeking procedures; one (massively-underspecified, but that's not the point) example is "emulate 1000 copies of Paul Christiano living together comfo...(read more)
I for one welcome our new typographical overlords.
That's a legit thing to be frustrated by, but I think you know the reason why AI safety researchers don't want "we don't see a way to get to a good outcome except for an aligned project to grab a decisive strategic advantage" to filter into public discourse: it pattern-matches too well to "trust us,...(read more)
To be clear, I am making the claim that, of the people who have made useful advances on Oracle AI safety research (Armstrong counts here; I don't think Yampolskiy does), all of them believe that the goal of having a safe Oracle AI is to achieve a decisive strategic advantage quickly and get to an al...(read more)
Yes, this. NVC should be treated with a similar sort of parameters to Crocker's Rules, which you can declare for yourself at any time, you can invite people to a conversation where it's known that everyone will be using them, but you cannot hold it against anyone if you invite them to declare Crocke...(read more)
There's a lot of Actually Bad things an AI can do just by making electrons move.