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PabloAMC

PhD in Quantum Computing in Complutense University of Madrid Effective Altruism organiser of the group in Madrid https://www.linkedin.com/in/pablo-antonio-moreno-casares/

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Forecasting Thread: AI Timelines
Answer by PabloAMCSep 04, 20206

My prediction. Some comments

  • Your percentiles:
    • 5th: 2023-05-16
    • 25th: 2033-03-31
    • 50th: 2046-04-13
    • 75th: 2075-11-27
    • 95th: above 2100-01-01
  • You think 2034-03-27 is the most likely point
    • You think it's 6.9X as likely as 2099-05-29
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