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Covid 10/15: Playtime is Over

Just go back and skim a couple of them. You wouldn't start a book in the middle and then criticize the author for being hard to follow

Has Eliezer ever retracted his statements about weight loss?
  • Actual bounded experts who are ignorant on other subjects
  • Wholly ignorant people who purport to be experts on subjects you're ignorant of

These are two different things. Gell-Mann amnesia seems to address the latter. You're referring to the former when you warn against assigning general trust values. Assigning general trust values would actual prevent Gell-Mann amnesia. Correct?

The Sun Room

My smartphone cannot enter the sun room with me.

Has Eliezer ever retracted his statements about weight loss?

Are you serious about the second part? Estimating the credibility of people you read?

Philosophy of Therapy

I found this extremely helpful. I'd known the world of therapy was complex but I had nothing like a broad map of it.

After staring at your chart for a minute I noticed that there are some modalities I'm able to do well for myself, and others that I'm not. When people claim they wouldn't benefit from "therapy," they're likely thinking of one or two modalities (and are likely correct), but may not be aware of the others.

Seek Upside Risk

Would you have preferred the post if framed around E(log(X))?

Technically yes, but I know it'd be harder to use as a mental model in everyday life. And anyway, I have the same initial bias as you

Seek Upside Risk

I love the spirit of this post, but all the focus on expected value raised some alarms in my head. 

Maximizing the expected value in ordinary (financial) betting leads to bad decisions (St. Petersburg paradox), and it can do the same in other areas of life. I can see you know this intuitively, because you mentioned Pascal's Mugging. Just letting you know that there's math that accounts for this, too:

To avoid wasting life on Pascal's Mugging (or going broke on bad bets), we maximize the expected logarithm of value (Kelly Criterion), because we get diminishing utility from higher amounts of the same thing.

is scope insensitivity really a brain error?

No, that's not my position. Read it again and see if there's a nuanced view that better fits my words.

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