Contra papers claiming superhuman AI forecasting
[Conflict of interest disclaimer: We are FutureSearch, a company working on AI-powered forecasting and other types of quantitative reasoning. If thin LLM wrappers could achieve superhuman forecasting performance, this would obsolete a lot of our work.] Widespread, misleading claims about AI forecasting Recently we have seen a number of papers...
Sep 12, 2024182
I agree it's a high bar, but note that
We made the deliberate choice of not getting too much into the details of what constitutes human-level/superhuman forecasting ability. We have a lot of opinions on this as well, but it is a topic for another post in order not to derail the discussion on what we think matters most here.