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Peter_de_Blanc
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Who Wants To Start An Important Startup?
Peter_de_Blanc13y70

I'm really excited about software similar to Anki, but with task-specialized user interfaces (vs. self-graded tasks) and better task-selection models (incorporating something like item response theory), ideally to be used for both training and credentialing.

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An Intuitive Explanation of Solomonoff Induction
Peter_de_Blanc13y90

No hypothesis is a prefix of another hypothesis.

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Ask an experimental physicist
Peter_de_Blanc13y40

What happens when an antineutron interacts with a proton?

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Biased Pandemic
Peter_de_Blanc13y00

I now realise you might be asking "how does this demonstrate hyperbolic, as opposed to exponential, discounting", which might be a valid point, but hyperbolic discounting does lead to discounting the future too heavily, so the player's choices do sort of make sense.

That is what I was wondering. Actually, exponential discounting values the (sufficiently distant) future less than hyperbolic discounting. Whether this is too heavy depends on the your parameter (unless you think that any discounting is bad).

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Biased Pandemic
Peter_de_Blanc13y00

Another player with Hyperbolic Discounting went further: he treated cities, any city near him, while carrying 5 red city cards in his hand and pointing out, in response to entreaties to cure red, that red wasn't much of an issue right now.

How does this demonstrate hyperbolic discounting?

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Excluding the Supernatural
Peter_de_Blanc14y30

What's special about a mosquito is that it drinks blood.

Phil originally said this:

My point was that vampires were by definition not real - or at least, not understandable - because any time we found something real and understandable that met the definition of a vampire, we would change the definition to exclude it.

Note Phil's use of the word "because" here. Phil is claiming that if vampires weren't unreal-by-definition, then the audience would not have changed their definition whenever provided with a real example of a vampire as defined. It follows that the original definition would have been acceptable had it been augmented with the "not-real" requirement, and so this is the claim I was responding to with the unreal mosquito example.

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Excluding the Supernatural
Peter_de_Blanc14y40

I understand that Phil was not suggesting that all non-real things are vampires. That's why my example was a mosquito that isn't real, rather than, say, a Toyota that isn't real.

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Excluding the Supernatural
Peter_de_Blanc14y50

My point was that vampires were by definition not real

So according to you, a mosquito that isn't real is a vampire?

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Is latent Toxoplasmosis worth doing something about?
Peter_de_Blanc14y30

My fencing coach emphasizes modeling your opponent more accurately and setting up situations where you control when stuff happens. Both of these skills can substitute somewhat for having faster reflexes.

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20AGI/FAI Theorist for Hire
14y
5
62Some rationality tweets
15y
80
11Pseudolikelihood as a source of cognitive bias
15y
9
9Shock Levels are Point Estimates
15y
11
7Philadelphia LessWrong Meetup, December 16th
16y
2
42The Domain of Your Utility Function
16y
99
30Epistemic vs. Instrumental Rationality: Approximations
16y
29