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AI-Oriented Investments

by PeterMcCluskey
20th Jul 2025
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This is a linkpost for https://bayesianinvestor.com/blog/index.php/2025/07/20/ai-oriented-investments/
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I've been shifting my investments to more AI-focused bets.

Here's an overview of my larger positions, in descending order of how eager I am to recommend further purchases now:

  • MU - AI is memory hungry, and MU is in a good position for almost NVDA-like growth
  • CSIQ - solar, for AI-related power demand
  • ASML - semiconductor equipment
  • SCIA - semiconductor equipment
  • GOOGL - for TPUs, DeepMind, and Waymo
  • SMCI - datacenter
  • NVDA
  • AMPX (and AMPX.WS) - batteries suitable for drones
  • TSSI - datacenter
  • CLS - close to half of its business involves datacenters
  • PDEX - a fairly safe way to diversify my portfolio
  • MTG - a fairly safe way to diversify my portfolio
  • ASTS - expanding cell phone coverage; I'll likely sell when I can get long-term gains

Short positions:

  • SP500 futures - hedging against risks such as tariffs
  • SOFR futures dated 2029 through 2032 - betting that interest rates will rise due to AI
  • WMT - it's got a high PE ratio, and little sign of growth

[This is not at all a complete list, as I have smaller positions in something like 150 other companies.]

AI stocks are likely to form a bubble someday, but I'm guessing the peak of that bubble is more than a year away.

I still have some concerns about tariff-related damage causing some declines sometime this year. I'm optimistic that the courts will strike down the per-country tariffs this fall. It shouldn't take long for the country to recover from the tariff damage once the tariffs have been removed.

Beware that even in a strong bull market, there will be periodic scares, such as January's DeepSeek-trigger panic, that cause sharp drops in leading stocks. AI-related stocks had a big rally in June, and are likely to consolidate for a while before the next such rally.