Thanks, makes some sort of sense this morning at least.
That diagram is helpful, certainly.
It's not that I think many-worlds is 'needed' to explain it, just that whever likely-nonsense intuition I have over the subject is based on that model, so it's best understood by me if it can be expressed in that frame.
Tell me it's a photon that wasn't there and I'll go, "Whut?"
Tell me that the worlds cancel each other out to zero probability and I might, likely falsely, think I grok it.
Heh. What's the odds of you having that winning lottery ticket?
50/50! Either I win, or I don't.
Seems like you're mostly saying that price-like things tend to return to an average price, then presenting a lot of evidence on why the price is low and likely to continue to be low, then claiming that it's therefore got to go up, because things return to their average price.
I have some bit-coin. It's still worth more than when I brought it. My best guess, as it was then, is that it'll be worth exactly zero in a decade or two.
Sounded like a lottery-ticket with expected-payout marginally better than the actual betting-odds offered.
Lottery tickets don't generally win though, even if the pay out is better than the betting-odds. It's certainly not 50/50.
I took the survey.
The answer to how many minutes I spend here is a bit lower than you might expect, in that my robots scan the RSS feeds and send me interesting stuff so basically it's almost zero, unless you count my robots time somehow.
That was pretty good fun.
What I was expecting: Half a dozen nerds boozing it up and shooting the breeze about math and poltiics and self improvement.
What actually happend: More like a classroom full of people, many less nerdy than me, mostly drinking water and eating icecream (apparently I was the only one drinking that awesome Devon 6% cider), chatting about widely variing topics including math and politics and polyphasic sleep and self improvement and fan-fiction and cults and meta self-organizing stuff.
Apparently this was a bigger turnout than usual, but not by the margin I would have assumed from only reading lesswrong etc. I suspect that if the aim is to grow the membership, encouraging everyone who goes to write about it here would be helpful.
Overall good fun, will go again if scheduling allows (which is twice as likely if there's twice as many meets of course)
Adam.. (Now also know as Pie, thanks to poor handwriting skills)
i typed my age then hit return which submitted the form with only one answer. so then i filled it in again. you'll want to ignore that first entry. dinner arrived as i did that so that was a couple of hours ago now. age is 39 if that helps.
Bell curves may be the general case, but for the non-car-owning public-transport-using among us the situation is quite different. If a train runs every 20 minutes then being 1 minute late for the train means being 20 minutes late at the destination. Being 1 minute early has no effect on the time arriving at the destination.
It makes the prep-time discontinuous I guess.
Course, in London everyone expects everyone to often be 20 minutes late coz of the damned trains, so maybe it matter less then, heh.
I counted it, coz I'm mostly just a lurker here anyway. Far too busy!
Heh, this is pretty much how I live my life really. Coins go in the obvious coin place coz if I put 'em anywhere else I'll never remember where I put 'em.
See also: Proper Pocket Discipline. Everything that goes in pockets has an assigned pocket. No more searching for lighters! No more worry about keys scratching phone screens.
My books are in alphabetical order these days.
I suspect having a system for these things will also leave you better off if/when you go senile. If you've always looked in the same place for your coins for 60 years it'll be more ingraned.