Punoxysm

Replying toOpen Thread, Apr. 06 - Apr. 12, 2015

Open Thread, Apr. 06 - Apr. 12, 2015

After looking at the website, it's still a very complicated idea, it's totally unclear what a small-scale implementation is supposed to look like (i.e. what impact does this have in a small community of enthusiasts, what incentive does anyone have to adopt it, etc.).

I can't evaluate your math because I don't see any math in your website or kickstarter. I see references to Bayes and Information theory, but no actual math.

Replying toHow urgent is it to intuitively understand Bayesianism?

Punoxysm11y

How urgent is it to intuitively understand Bayesianism?

Not particularly urgent. An understanding of how to update priors (which you can get a good deal of with an intro to stats and probability class) doesn't help dramatically with the real problem of having good priors and correctly evaluating evidence.

Replying toEfficient Food

Punoxysm11y

Efficient Food

The big pizza delivery chains have expanded their menus over time, from pretty-much-pizza to sandwiches, desserts, wings, salads, etc.

So it seems efficiency is not the driver.

Replying toOpen Thread, Apr. 06 - Apr. 12, 2015

Punoxysm11y

Open Thread, Apr. 06 - Apr. 12, 2015

I think you have failed to consider the requirements of Kickstarter. You need to really think about your marketing, deliver as clear and slick a statement of your project as possible, and imitate as much as you can of successful similar kickstarter projects.

Your video is neither clear nor slick (verbal explanation with random camera angles is a poor way for most people to absorb information), and needs visual aids at least.

I watched a couple minutes of explanation, and then zoned out. Sorry.

I'm guessing from your low funds that you've also done little to evangelize your concept, or have been unsuccessful in doing so.

I also think Kickstarter for coding projects is a high barrier, since so much programming is volunteer open-source projects, people wonder why they'd donate extra. And you offer no rewards for backers, a key element of Kickstarter's concept.

You also say in the first paragraph "the project isn't going well".

Replying toPredictIt, a prediction market out of New Zealand, now in beta.

Punoxysm11y

PredictIt, a prediction market out of New Zealand, now in beta.

It's not really arbitrage if you lose money.

Replying toHuman Capital Contracts

Punoxysm11y

Human Capital Contracts

I think the same essential abuses that exist with debt exist here, so time-limitation (say equity stops yielding returns after 15-20 years, and can be discharged by bankruptcy) is important.

I worry about abuses when the equity stake is high. If you're a mentor, and your investment decides they don't really want to prioritize income maximization, what will you do?

Would the way to optimize returns involve hiring those you've invested in yourself (or arranging some convenient swap, if such direct employment is forbidden), and perhaps result in a system that looks either nepotistic or like indentured servitude?

Most of my objections melt away with shorter term investments. Still, equity is a much more natural fit on the project/business level.

And taking on low-earning degrees isn't particularly an information issue. It's a people-make-poor-decisions-at-18 issue. Data about majors' earnings are readily available.

Replying toMoney threshold Trigger Action Patterns

Punoxysm11y

Money threshold Trigger Action Patterns

Owning a car can have a large advantage over leasing, if you are likely to keep the car a long time. An owned car can also become a second backup car, that it's no big deal if it breaks down) if you get a newer one. Leasing two cars at once is a big waste of money.

Owning versus renting a home is not clear cut at all. Renting a house is a huge money pit unless you are frequently moving, and renting an apartment vs. owning a house is often not comparable in lifestyle. Owning a house gives you the property and flexibility, and can result in longer-term wealth building.

Replying toMoney threshold Trigger Action Patterns

Punoxysm11y

Money threshold Trigger Action Patterns

I used to be a poor student, and while I had a few indulgences I was frugal by virtue of being unable to afford some things. Now I have a job that makes plenty of money, and I spend it on things I would have once considered a poor value or even outright wasteful (uber instead of public transit, order something on Amazon I am unlikely to use).

I imagine if I had much much more money, I'd spend it on things I consider wasteful now.

Replying toHarry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, February 2015, chapter 104

Punoxysm11y

Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, February 2015, chapter 104

So, Harry should probably have figured this out 60 chapters ago.

But we'll cut him some slack.

Replying toOpen thread, Feb. 16 - Feb. 22, 2015

Punoxysm11y

Open thread, Feb. 16 - Feb. 22, 2015

You've dropped out of the lower end of Flow, the optimal level of challenge for a task.

You've solved the intellectually interesting nugget, or believe you have, and now all that's left are the mundane and often frustrating details of implementation. Naturally you'll lose some motivation.

So you have to embrace that mundanity, and/or start looking at the project differently.

Discussion of concrete near-to-middle term trends in AI

Punoxysm

11y

Instead of prognosticating on AGI/Strong AI/Singularities, I'd like to discuss more concrete advancements to expect in the near-term in AI. I invite those who have an interest in AI to discuss predictions or interesting trends they've observed.

This discussion should be useful for anyone looking to research or work in companies involved in AI, and might guide longer-term predictions.

With that, here are my predictions for the next 5-10 years in AI. This is mostly straightforward extrapolation, so it won't excite those who know about these areas but may interest those who don't:

Speech Processing, the task of turning the spoken words into text, will continue to improve until it is essentially a solved problem.

... (read 564 more words →)

What false beliefs have you held and why were you wrong?

Punoxysm

11y

What is something you used to believe, preferably something concrete with direct or implied predictions, that you now know was dead wrong. Was your belief rational given what you knew and could know back then, or was it irrational, and why?

Edit: I feel like some of these are getting a bit glib and political. Please try to explain what false assumptions or biases were underlying your beliefs - be introspective - this is LW after all.

368

HPMOR hypothesis: Harry will use Timeless Decision Theory to resolve some of the time-turner paradoxes

Punoxysm

12y

Evidence:

The obsession with precise times in the last few chapters, the prominence of time-turners in the plot in general, and Harry's vow to revive Hermione all indicate use of time-turners in the final arc.
EY has involved many of his favorite ideas and themes (especially from the sequences) into HPMOR already. Timeless Decision Theory is without a doubt among his most prominent interests.
Harry has already gained two superpowers (super-patronus and partial transfiguration) by virtue of, well, being a proponent of EY's favorite themes essentially. Why not a third?
One specific concrete use would be to coordinate an indefinite number of selves in the way that Harry failed to during the prime-factoring experiment in the

... (read more)

-13

What legal ways do people make a profit that produce the largest net loss in utility?

Punoxysm

12y

This is an offshoot of a thread I made earlier, but which wasn't eliciting the sort of responses I'd hoped for.

So let me pose a clearer question with less potential to get people on watchlists.

What legal ways of making a profit are the most anti-altruistic, the most damaging to society, the opposite of effective altruism in result.

I am using utility loosely. The answers need not be given from a utilitarian perspective at all, but instead merely deal with any means of making a profit that seems to you clearly wretched, and such that the world would be better if nobody participated in it.

I'd also like to emphasize that these things should be... (read more)

What is the most anti-altruistic way to spend a million dollars?

Punoxysm

12y

Edit: The purpose of this question is not to make the world worse, but to see whether we actually have concrete ideas of what would, and my guess is that most of us don't, not in a really concrete way. From the downvotes I'm wondering if everyone else is thinking way darker directions than I am. If so please share.

There is a lot of discussion here about effective altruism. Organizations like GiveWell with donations, using criterion like quality-life-years-saved-per-dollar. People distinguish warm-and-fuzzy giving from the most effective use of dollars from various utilitarian perspectives.

But I want to ask a different question: What would effective anti-altruism be?

To make it more concrete:

I am an eccentric... (read 248 more words →)

-8

How to Study Unsafe AGI's safely (and why we might have no choice)

Punoxysm

12y

TL;DR

A serious possibility is that the first AGI(s) will be developed in a Manhattan Project style setting before any sort of friendliness/safety constraints can be integrated reliably. They will also be substantially short of the intelligence required to exponentially self-improve. Within a certain range of development and intelligence, containment protocols can make them safe to interact with. This means they can be studied experimentally, and the architecture(s) used to create them better understood, furthering the goal of safely using AI in less constrained settings.

Setting the Scene

The year is 2040, and in the last decade a series of breakthroughs in neuroscience, cognitive science, machine learning, and computer hardware have put the long-held dream of

... (read 1454 more words →)

LESSWRONG
LW

LESSWRONG
LW

What false beliefs have you held and why were you wrong?

Discussion of concrete near-to-middle term trends in AI

How to Study Unsafe AGI's safely (and why we might have no choice)

What legal ways do people make a profit that produce the largest net loss in utility?

Punoxysm

Discussion of concrete near-to-middle term trends in AI

What false beliefs have you held and why were you wrong?

HPMOR hypothesis: Harry will use Timeless Decision Theory to resolve some of the time-turner paradoxes

What legal ways do people make a profit that produce the largest net loss in utility?

What is the most anti-altruistic way to spend a million dollars?

How to Study Unsafe AGI's safely (and why we might have no choice)

Punoxysm

What false beliefs have you held and why were you wrong?

Discussion of concrete near-to-middle term trends in AI

How to Study Unsafe AGI's safely (and why we might have no choice)

What legal ways do people make a profit that produce the largest net loss in utility?

Punoxysm

Discussion of concrete near-to-middle term trends in AI

What false beliefs have you held and why were you wrong?

HPMOR hypothesis: Harry will use Timeless Decision Theory to resolve some of the time-turner paradoxes

What legal ways do people make a profit that produce the largest net loss in utility?

What is the most anti-altruistic way to spend a million dollars?

How to Study Unsafe AGI's safely (and why we might have no choice)