Randomized, Controlled

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I wrote "estimate of up to 15% chance", which is compatible with what you're saying here. But I don't mind updating it to be more precise.

This roughly corresponds to the risk stance I've been taking since finishing my primary course of vaxx.

I just tested + for the first time today. At the very least, this is comforting to read. Thanks!

This comment was made before I updated the question to clarify what's in scope and added the moderation guidelines.

I'm sorry to hear about your health issues with LC. They sounds truly terrible. This question isn't addressed at the topic you're asking about, however.

But what is the base rate? How do demographic factors affect the base rate? Vaccination status?

4 month follow up: a lot of heat was very helpful, but underpowered to fully deal with this problem, and also inconvenient to constantly have a hotwater bottle in the back of my sweater like a hunchback of Notre Dame. Gently ramped up, progressive upper back strengthening has been very helpful for getting to a much more sustainably comfortable point. There's still some lingering issues in the spot between the shoulder blades and occasionally I do still treat with heat, but it's much much better now.

A number of answers have already alluded to deprioritizing long-term savings, but you could go farther and borrow from the post-singularity future. Get a mortgage or other loan. This may work out well even in some worlds with friendly superintelligence, because maybe the AGI gives us a luxury automated communism and your debt obligation is somehow disolved.

Umm... this is not financial advice.

Byyyye!

Yeah, as a 1.5 week follow up, the heat treatement has continued to has continued to be effective, with the sense of tightness continuing to resolve. But it's also required a fairly high dose: probably several hours a day sitting with the waterbottle shoved into my t-shirt. I have a more ergonomic chair arriving tomorrow, G-d and B-zzos willing.

Two days later: this is working quite well so far.

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