02/28/2021 - Myanmar Diaries; Context

Thank you! More is coming :)

The most likely is a military challenger unseating Hlaing or the military's own party overthrowing them.

02/28/2021 - Myanmar Diaries; Context

There are a couple of ways out. There's an unusual cohesion in the military currently, which allows the military to pull this off. Normally military regimes are unstable because even a small faction can threaten a civil war and force a regime change. So if the current generation dies -or- becomes dependent on their intelligence agency -or- a new officer faction things change. The new faction may prefer a return to the barracks, and change the whole system.

The western sanctions do not matter. Western investment, aid and loan forgiveness do matter, but no enough to stop the violence.

Why I Am Not in Charge

Speaking of public pressure to adopt better policies, let's form a twitter campaign to #unclogthefda. We're campaigning to decrease FDA red tape and accelerate vaccination approvals using tired-and-tested healthcare reform organizing techniques! You can read and comment on the plan here

#unclogtheFDA: a twitter storm to approve vaccines

Good point and interesting idea, any chance you would like to implement it?

Clearly stating the lives at stake is of course necessary and within our bandwidth budget. But we should be careful about having too many numbers, because the goal is appealing to a less academic/wonky/rat audience. Avoid any jargon-laden multi-level models or expected value discussions. Personal narratives are more powerful.

#unclogtheFDA: a twitter storm to approve vaccines

Good point! Let's move to Monday the 15th from 1 to 2

Lessons I've Learned from Self-Teaching

Why did you write autodidacting instead of selfteaching? It just put a google search between me and reading the article...

Prediction: Astra Zeneca approval date

I do not know how to add a plugin, I would have done so. It is active on Metaculus currently.

Seems like we could bet about it being approved before April 1st profitably. I am comfortable with this bet because I assumed the FDA/CDC conservatives would win on vaccination priority and first doses first, but Alex Tabarrok won the first and is starting to win the second.

Prediction: Astra Zeneca approval date

I agree that this is the FDA's model. It implies a "strange" unawareness of the underlying statistics. The p-values of the vaccines are really really small because their effect sizes are may orders of magnitudes above most drugs. Also the drug companies in this case could not run many RCTs. So if the FDA were maximizing lives they would authorize them. If they are making an incentive system that requires no deep understanding of statistics, it's not "strange".

Importantly, the FDA is "strange" relative to the calculus of politicians, who to survive must be utilitarian and use induction.

Covid 12/24: We’re F***ed, It’s Over

That seems plausible right now, in January, at our current level of social distancing compliance. But why would the degree of distancing stay constant over vaccination? It hasn't even stayed constant the last 8 months when nobody has been vaccinated.

So far we have a clear pattern. People voluntarily comply when the issue seems important because there are lots of infections, hospitalizations and deaths. During lulls the issue becomes less available and compliance drops. In the best case for essential worker vaccination, it produces a lull in February-March. But if you actually drop the reproduction rate then that 3x factor goes away immediately. Unless you have a reliable plan to get people to keep social distancing even when things seem over, vaccinating the vulnerable saves lives in expectation.

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