I love this.
Those are some really strong critiques. The framework did do something valuable for me. I have a few professors at my PhD program who are properly clueless. I've been trying to speak straight talk to them for a while, with negative results. It just strains the relationship. After reading this, I will try some babytalk. Frame my research agenda with some woke jargon, stuff like that.
Also the passage on woke talk and professors is spot on.
Great! Now redo it with equations included ;)
If the school shuts down the kids will just go back to the street. We do not send kids back into school when we observe transmission from kids being out of school. The evidence from Emily Oster suggest that there isn't much difference in transmission.
Also, I would argue that a small amount of transmission is worth educating our children, especially with 70-80% of the vulnerable vaccinated. Overall dividing life years lost by transmissions comes to 2 weeks per confirmed infections, so call that the base cost. Reduce it by 75% for targeted vaccination and each case is costing ~3 days of a persons life. And the student infections are the least dangerous kind. I could go either way on it if the alternative were no transmission. Since the alternative is about the same transmission rate but somewhere else, I say keep the schools open.
OTOH, the incentive argument is much stronger. Maybe the collective punishment forces the school to internalize the cost of transmission, leading to a pareto improving safe-school equilibrium.
I hope to find enough time to address this later. The foreign actors are affecting the revolution in two days. The western powers have revoked all aid and trade privileges, damaging the economy. The regional actors tend to side with the expected winner. The internal actors then update off the foreigners expectations.
Possibly the incentives on the parties are more important than the incentives on the individual candidates. We should then see a difference in issue-position flexibility between prop rep and single-member-district systems.
this is good and you should feel good
The two bottom predictions have already resolved. Large protests did not end and greater than 20 protestors have been killed so far.
Is there a clear resource about how Zvi formats and scores his weekly predictions?
Very interesting! I'll keep watching.
Thank you! More is coming :)
The most likely is a military challenger unseating Hlaing or the military's own party overthrowing them.