Tim Liptrot

Wiki Contributions


That was a typo, there was originally a note explaining that the line is sarcasm.

Thanks I'm really glad you identified that before it went elsewhere to create problems.

"Once you know which side you’re on, you must support all arguments of that side, and attack all arguments that appear to favor the enemy side; otherwise it’s like stabbing your soldiers in the back—providing aid and comfort to the enemy. " - Big Yud

I really doubt that people in the comment section will start siding with the RSF or the SAF and turning arguments into soldiers here. To almost all westerners Sudan todays is as distant as "Louis XVI during the French Revolution".

It's a good question. The obvious answer is that I was not comparing the current conflict with the most deadly conflicts since WW2, but with typical conflicts in Sudan and its environs over the past 20 years. I would guess Sudan has seen maybe 15k direct deaths so far (I believe official figures undercount Darfur and are far too low). Indirect deaths will be much higher due to the economic devastation from the war reaching Sudan's capital. The conflict shows no signs of stopping, so we can expect the ultimate death toll to be higher.

I don't have time to grab data, but only a small minority of conflicts enter the tens of thousands of battle deaths (which are easier to measure than civilian). By Wikipedia there are 62 conflicts since 1950 over 25k deaths. Total conflicts with 100 or more battle deaths is easily in the thousands, most of which you have never heard of like the Heglig War.

I expect that the death rate per month will decline over the course of the war until peace happens, at least in Khartoum and central Sudan. I don't understand the Darfur dynamics that produce massacres there so I cannot speculate on that.

For new readers: SSA = Self-sampling assumption. Read that in Bostrums "Anthropic Bias". SIA might mean "Sampling independence assumption" but I am just guessing.

Does anyone have a good piece on hedging investments for AI risk? Would love a read, thanks!

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