rossry

Posts

Sorted by New

Comments

Covid 2/11: As Expected

You can also get a fair number of points for just predicting the community prediction — but you won't get that many because as a question's point value increases (which it does with the number of predictions), more and more of the score is relative rather than absolute.

I think this is actually backwards (the value goes up as the question's point value increases), because the relative score is the component responsible for the "positive regardless of resolution" payoffs. Explanation and worked example here: https://blog.rossry.net/metaculus/

Can We Place Trust in Post-AGI Forecasting Evaluations?

Clever, but it hasn't been tried for a good reason. If, say, the next five years of markets are all untethered from reality (but consistent with each other), there's no way to get paid for bringing them into line with expected reality except by putting on the trades and holding them for five years. (The natural one-year trade will just resolve to the unfair market price of the next-year-market market and there's nothing to do about it except wait for longer.)

The chained markets end up being no more fair than if they all settled to the final expiry directly.

The US Already Has A Wealth Tax

One can avoid a wealth tax by living in another country.

I don't understand why this is necessarily true. What would stop the US from levying a wealth tax on US persons living abroad?

Delegate a Forecast

When will air travel from New York to Hong Kong no longer require arriving passengers to self-quarantine?

ESRogs's Shortform

It's worse than that. If there weren't any shares available at your broker for you to short-sell in the market, you should consider it likely that instead of paying 0.4%/day, you just are told you have to buy shares to cover your short from assignment. This is an absolutely normal thing that happens sometimes when it's hard to find additional people to lend stock (which is happening now).

(Disclaimer: I am a financial professional, but I'm not a financial advisor, much less yours.)

What are objects that have made your life better?

Strictly speaking, they're not both laptop chargers, but laptop/phone/USB-C chargers. So two of them are useful on the road for charging laptop and phone simultaneously.

What are objects that have made your life better?

Not a physical object, but the Cloud9 IDE (now absorbed into Amazon's AWS suite) for programming work. If your work fits into a terminal plus text editor (which it probably does), then making the actual hardware be a cloud server instead of a laptop that can run out of charge is a big win, and being able to access your "real" machine from different interface machines is sometimes useful.

For the interface laptop itself, I've been very, very happy with a Google Pixelbook (which I got after many, many satisfied years with the original Chromebook Pixel), but that depends on whether you have tasks outside the browser, terminal, or text editor.

What are objects that have made your life better?

Separate travel toiletries from at-home toiletries. (The biggest win is not having to unpack exactly when you get home tired.) Similarly, separate travel phone/laptop chargers from at-home chargers, for same reason.

I haven't yet gone all the way to a separate set of travel clothes, but would like to, one of these years. The 80/20 version is making sure to lay out 1-2 full sets of clothes before going on the long trip.

(For reference, I spent maybe five weeks of 2019 traveling, though naturally 2020 has been much less than that.)

What are objects that have made your life better?

Ahem: a fifth laptop/USB-C charger. (One each for my couch, desk, and bedroom; two stay packed in my travel luggage.)

h/t to Zvi for making this suggestion in Dual Weilding, under the general heading of More Dakka.

English Bread Regulations

The first two regulations have reference prices for wheat that differ by 50%. How far apart in time were they issued?

Load More