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Anti-EMH Evidence (and a plea for help)

I'm bit confused about the Deribit trade. I can see that you can hedge your position with this trade, but I don't understand how you get the return?

The futures price will converge to the spot price as expiration draws near, but this is not necessarily the spot price you paid... I must be missing something... Any pointer?

Open thread, August 7 - August 13, 2017

Is there an alternative to predictionbook.com for private predictions? I'd like to have all the nice goodies like updateble predictions in scicast/metaculus, but for private stuff?

Alternative question: Is there a off-line version of prediction book (command line or gui)?

Open thread, Oct. 12 - Oct. 18, 2015

Thanks tried that. Not sure it worked as I didn't learn anything concrete. We spent 30 mins in discussion though (which he didn't need to do as there was no further value he could extract from me).

Oh well, such is life...

Open thread, Oct. 12 - Oct. 18, 2015

Any tips on eliciting good, honest personal feedback? I just got a rejection from a position I wanted and will have a call with the headhunter tomorrow. I'd like to extract something useful information out of it. Any tips of good question formulations?

E.g. in a survey I ask instead of "Do you use X?" the question "In the past 3 months how many times did you use X?" to get a less biased answer.

Any good questions/ideas?

The first answer here is pretty good, though doesn't quite apply for my situation: https://www.quora.com/Whats-the-best-way-to-ask-for-personal-feedback-from-friends-and-coworkers-on-your-strengths-and-weaknesses

Thank you!

Open Thread, Jul. 13 - Jul. 19, 2015

New papers byt Jan Leike, Marcus Hutter:

Solomonoff Induction Violates Nicod's Criterion http://arxiv.org/abs/1507.04121

On the Computability of Solomonoff Induction and Knowledge-Seeking http://arxiv.org/abs/1507.04124

What supplements do you take, if any?

Is there a reason to take magnesium citrate at night and not in the morning?

Open Thread, May 26 - June 1, 2014

I suppose you've already checked the usuals like coursera, udacity, youtube courses etc.? "Medicine" is exteremely broad, but you can find some interesting intro courses to some of its aspects, e.g.:


Just some more general courses that sound interesting/useful:

Clinical Terminology for International and U.S. Students https://www.coursera.org/course/clinicalterminology

Understanding Research: An Overview for Health Professionals (looks extremely useful!) https://www.coursera.org/course/researchforhealth

Vital Signs: Understanding What the Body Is Telling Us https://www.coursera.org/course/vitalsigns

Clinical Problem Solving https://www.coursera.org/course/clinprobsolv

Introduction to Pharmacy https://www.coursera.org/course/intropharma

Introductory Human Physiology https://www.coursera.org/course/humanphysio

Plus many intro courses on genetics, neuropsychology etc.

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