Bae's Theorem

This is a linkpost for Practical Decision-Making Retrospective, an article looking back on the successes and learnings from this course. This article is part two of a series of ongoing retrospectives on the progress of the Guild of the Rose, an organization for rationalist education and community.

“When one advances claims, one must first establish a standard of assessment. To make claims in the absence of such a standard is like trying to establish on the surface of a spinning potter’s wheel where the sun will rise and set. Without a fixed standard, one cannot clearly ascertain...

Attendees: Me, A, W, S, C, J Me: As a follow up to last week, where I brought up the fact I am planning to change careers, I showed an example of the kind of job I would like to have: a position as a decision analyst at the Pentagon....

I.) ROUND TABLE * I began by sharing an instance today where I fell for Cognitive Fusion, but successfully noticed it myself. After our catering order of subs last week, I had developed the routine “pick up food on the way to the Dojo”. This week, I changed the food...

I.) POST MORTEM OF PREVIOUS MEETING We discuss the situation from last meeting, when a newcomer and non-rationalist showed up and got into a testy argument with Life Engineer. We concluded that it was primarily a matter of conflicting expectations; the newcomer was expecting a more "salon"-type, open-ended, intellectual conversation...

Kansas City Dojo Meetup 11-5-19 (names besides my own have been changed for privacy) PART I: 6pm-6:30 There are three attendees total, including myself, and one is a newcomer and a stranger to the Rationalist community. He found us on Meetup.com. I begin by explaining the Dojo proceedings to him:...

At our Dojo, we performed an FMEA on all the various CFAR techniques we have gone over. The biggest failure mode of the Bug List was "discounting the positive". Additionally, if we shift our focus to a more positive mindset, it tends to be more motivating. So basically, instead of...