Oh wow, thanks. I think at the time I was overconfident that some more educated Bayesian had worked through the details of what I was describing. But the causality-related stuff is definitely covered by Judea Pearl (the Pearl I was referring to) in his book *Causality* (2000).
Austin, TXLW event link: https://www.lesswrong.com/events/YQrPgwGaqqvpDPmZx/austin-lw-ssc-winter-solstice-2023
Thanks to everyone for attending! Please complete this survey about your experience so we know what went right or wrong:
Looking forward to seeing all of you today! For parking, you can use the street or the neighboring Mother’s Milk Bank. If it’s crowded, try the neighborhood to the west off Justin Ln, but in all cases, watch for signs about where it is legal to park!
Austin, Texas Winter Solstice.
December 20th (Tuesday), 6 pm doors open.
LW event link (details to be added).
Just added a spreadsheet to help coordinate carpooling.
Yes it is! (But don't give them alcohol.)
Final update for anyone who RSVP'd: You can park on the street in the area around Moontower. We will be providing lunch as well: breakfast tacos, including vegetarian and vegan options.We have the whole venue reserved for us.
It's overridden, we've rented out the place.
Yes, we've rented out the venue for 12-8, so the normal hours don't apply.