Sinclair Chen

manifold.markets/Sinclair

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I’ve tried this. It only occurred to me after I moved to a dirty and ugly neighborhood. Before then I lived either in car centric suburbia or pleasant city neighborhoods with lots of nearby shops.

anyways it’s a good idea

can’t you wipe a hard drive’s data by redacting it?

This reminds me of the AP tests in america. These are tests administered in the by The College Board (same company that runs the SATs) which give college credit for their subject. Many high schools teach AP classes for particular tests, but you could just study for them yourself.

This also reminds me of China's gaokao - a giant standardized test that all high schoolers take for college placements. There was a large market for after-school tutoring for these tests, before the PRC banned the entire industry. I think Japan and Taiwan have similar systems.

Decoupling testing from teaching is just commonsense incentive design. It has been tried before and it works.
It's not called an "exam-only-university" because it gives out tests once a quarter out of rented facilities and has no campus, no dorms, no frats, and no clubs.

I'm trying to see if pol.is would be good for this, like so: https://pol.is/4fdjudd23d

pol.is is a tool for aggregating opinions on political subjects from among a lot of people - it takes agree/disagree votes, clusters opinions based on similarity of voting, and ultimately tries to find consensus opinions. It was used in Taiwan to help write ride-share legislation.
I'm hoping I can misuse it here for operationalizing prediction market questions. If the "manifold users" like to bet on understandable questions, the "forecasters" like to bet on precise questions, while the "researcher" likes questions about day-to-day work, then perhaps by getting enough people from each "party" to weigh in it will find "consensus" questions that they are simultaneously useful, precise, and popular (and therefore more accurate).

I am unsure if pol.is will actually work better at the 10-100 people level compared to a normal forum. Let's give it a try anyways! 

we update our classes very frequently since this we use tailwind and iterate on the styles all the time

I agree, but it’s literally illegal to have real money prediction markets in the US on anything but finance and maybe elections. The only realistic paths are getting it legalized, building an actually nice to use and not scammy crypto prediction market, or accepting legal risk like you’re early Uber

I will practice more empathy in my daily conversations.

 

I recommend you focus instead on getting people to laugh as your key metric. It's much easier to tell whether you are doing well or poorly or merely ok, and succeeding at it gets you very far.

Maybe we should just let people bet on N/A similar to Augur (with some stronger norm of resolving N/A in ambiguous cases)

I think Metaculus's level of verbosity in resolution criteria is bad in that it makes questions longer to write and longer to understand (because it takes longer to read and because its more complex). Part of the goal of Manifold is to remove trivial inconveniences so that people actually forecast at all, and so that we get markets on literally everything.
I think the synthesis here is to have a subset of high quality markets (clear resolution criteria, clear meta-resolution norms) but still have a fat tail of medium-quality questions.

(Engineer at Manifold here.) I largely agree! Letting people make markets on anything means that many people will make poorly operationalized markets. Subjective resolution is good for bets on personal events among friends, which is an important use case, but it bad for questions with an audience bigger than that.

We need to do a better job of: 
1. resolution reliability, like by adding a reputation system or letting creators delegate resolution to more objective individuals / courts.
2. helping users turn their vague uncertainties into objective questions - crucial but less straightforward.
3. surfacing higher quality content

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