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Sniffnoy
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I'm Harry Altman. I do strange sorts of math.

Posts I'd recommend:

  • A summary of Savage's foundations for probability and utility -- if the arguments used to ground probability and utility seem circular to you, here's a non-circular way of doing it.
  • Underappreciated points about utility functions
  • Should correlation coefficients be expressed as angles?

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10More on policy arguments and the AB problem
5mo
0
8Suggesting some revisions to Graham's hierarchy of disagreement
7mo
2
12Workflow vs interface vs implementation
7mo
0
12Quick thoughts on the difficulty of widely conveying a non-stereotyped position
7mo
0
22Doing principle-of-charity better
7mo
1
14X as phenomenon vs as policy, Goodhart, and the AB problem
7mo
0
21Consequentialism is for making decisions
7mo
9
47Underappreciated points about utility functions (of both sorts)
6y
61
23Goal-thinking vs desire-thinking
6y
11
9Three types of "should"
7y
9
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Duncan Sabien: "In Defense of Punch Bug"
Sniffnoy19d20

Unfortunately, no. I see that I have a largely complete draft written from 7 years ago, but I'm not sure if I'd still want to post it in that form. Maybe worth reviewing at some point.

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Consequentialism is for making decisions
Sniffnoy7mo20

This doesn't appear to be what's usually meant by "consequentialism"?

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Consequentialism is for making decisions
Sniffnoy7mo30

Oh, nice! I guess this is basically saying the same thing as that, I'll add a link.

Reply
Suggesting some revisions to Graham's hierarchy of disagreement
Sniffnoy7mo20

Oh wow I'd forgotten about that!

Reply
Dissent Collusion
Sniffnoy8mo40

Yes, I think I'd agree with that.

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Dissent Collusion
Sniffnoy8mo20

Whether you actually look up the answer seems irrelevant? Is it that misleading the Lonesome is easier if the Collective knows the answer?

I think the idea is that while you can lie about this, in reality things go fairly differently in cases where you looked it up in a way that's noticeable.

Does it seem like it's working as practice?

Hm, not really I guess. (Oops, I guess I forgot to mention that part!)

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Dissent Collusion
Sniffnoy9mo40

I've run this several times at OBNYC, it's gone pretty well. Generally we didn't bother with scoring. One issue with scoring is needing to come up with what counts for numerical questions. Although we tried to do that anyway, because we wanted to score individual questions even if we weren't keeping score overall. For many things you can use "order of magnitude and first digit", but that doesn't work well for everything. Dates we generally did plus or minus 10 years. But it may need to vary a bit depending on just what the question. Maybe plus or minus some fixed percentage for many of them? (10%? 20%?) We did plus or minus an inch for a question about Conan O'Brien's height.

One modification that got suggested at the most recent one was to say that on a 1, you look up the answer and lie; this is so that when you say "we looked it up" this is less informative. We never actually rolled a 1 after making this change, however. Perhaps one should add lookups on 5 as well if you're doing this, to really make it uninformative? (So that the truth:lie ratio is 2:1 regardless of whether you're doing a lookup or not.)

(At earlier ones we had for a while a "no talking about the die roll" rule that would make this unnecessary, but people didn't like that.)

Having a good source of questions has been a little bit of a problem. The provided list isn't that great -- we've used questions from our copy of Wits & Wagers, or lists online, or just making ones up. Make sure you have some sort of question source!

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Harri Besceli's Shortform
Sniffnoy1y40

We could also point to sleepwalkers of various sorts: even when executing complex actions (like murdering someone), I've never seen any accounts which mention deeply felt emotions. (WP emphasizes their dullness and apathetic affect.)

Nitpick: Sleepwalking proper apparently happens during non-REM sleep; acting out a dream during REM sleep is different and has its own name. Although it seems like sleepwalkers may also be dreaming somehow even though they aren't in REM sleep? I don't know -- this is definitely not my area -- and arguably none of this is relevant to the original point; but I thought I should point it out.

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My PhD thesis: Algorithmic Bayesian Epistemology
Sniffnoy2y20

Ha! OK, that is indeed nasty. Yeah I guess CASes can solve this kind of problem these days, can't they? Well -- I say "these days" as if it this hasn't been the case for, like, my entire life, I've just never gotten used to making routine use of them...

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LessWrong Jargon
15 years ago
(+41)
Quick Reference Guide To The Infinite
15 years ago
(+19396)
Near/Far Thinking
16 years ago
(+53)