I believe there is considerable low-hanging algorithmic fruit that can make LLMs better at reasoning tasks. I think these changes will involve modifications to the architecture + training objectives. One major example is highlighted by the work of https://arxiv.org/abs/2210.10749, which show that Transformers can only heuristically implement algorithms to most interesting problems in the computational complexity hierarchy. With recurrence (e.g. through CoT https://arxiv.org/abs/2310.07923) these problems can be avoided, which might lead to much better generic, domain-independent reasoning capabilities. A small number of people are already working on such algorithmic modifications to Transformers (e.g. https://arxiv.org/abs/2403.09629).
This is to say that we haven't really explored small variations on the current LLM paradigm, and it's quite likely that the "bugs" we see in their behavior could be addressed through manageable algorithmic changes + a few OOMs more of compute. For this reason, if they make a big difference, I could see capabilities changing quite rapidly once people figure out how to implement them. I think scaling + a little creativity is alive and well as a pathway to nearish-term AGI.
I believe there is considerable low-hanging algorithmic fruit that can make LLMs better at reasoning tasks. I think these changes will involve modifications to the architecture + training objectives. One major example is highlighted by the work of https://arxiv.org/abs/2210.10749, which show that Transformers can only heuristically implement algorithms to most interesting problems in the computational complexity hierarchy. With recurrence (e.g. through CoT https://arxiv.org/abs/2310.07923) these problems can be avoided, which might lead to much better generic, domain-independent reasoning capabilities. A small number of people are already working on such algorithmic modifications to Transformers (e.g. https://arxiv.org/abs/2403.09629).
This is to say that we haven't really explored small variations on the current LLM paradigm, and it's quite likely that the "bugs" we see in their behavior could be addressed through manageable algorithmic changes + a few OOMs more of compute. For this reason, if they make a big difference, I could see capabilities changing quite rapidly once people figure out how to implement them. I think scaling + a little creativity is alive and well as a pathway to nearish-term AGI.